The process of developing a referendum law in Taiwan represents the difficult progress of the country's efforts to decolonize itself and establish an awareness of its sovereignty.
Although there is still a powerful opposition which is trying to ensure the failure of Taiwan's first nationwide referendum, many political analysts believe that the referendum on Saturday will succeed.
These analysts say the coming referendum is an important opportunity for the people of Taiwan to break the mold of partisan conflict, ethnic division, and bickering about independence or reunification.
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Further, referendums could become a fundamental tool in the routine operation of Taiwan's democracy, and the major method Taiwanese adopt to handle domestic differences about cross-strait issues.
"President Chen Shui-bian (
"The consensus brought by the referendum is greater than the conflict the elections bring, so no matter who wins the presidential election, referendums will become a common asset shared by all parties, just like the slogan `Love Taiwan [
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Hsu pointed out that if Chen won a second term, he would continue to use referendums to smooth out differences about major public policies, such as the destiny of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, the formulation of a new constitution and deciding how the Taiwanese government interacts with China or the US.
On the other hand, Hsu said, if Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (
"If Chen loses, the referendum will not be considered to be the cause of Chen's failure, because the referendum enabled Chen to close the gap in his standing in the polls in six months, from trailing by 20 percent to a race too close to call," Hsu said.
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"Now the KMT and the People First Party [PFP] dare not oppose the referendum under any circumstance, as the public will keep examining Lien or Chen in the future to see whether they continue to respect the referendum," he said.
Looking back
The history of the referendum law in Taiwan parallels the experiences of other countries which had been colonized before and during World War II as the former colonials fought, either politically or physically, to achieve their country's independence. Holding a referendum on the topic of independence was even a method promoted by the UN for former colonies to determine their international status.
After Japan lost the war in 1945, Taiwan was taken over by China's KMT regime.
But after the alien regime brutally massacred thousands of Taiwanese in the 228 Incident in 1947, people became disappointed with China and its turmoil as well as the KMT government. These people had new notions about Taiwan's status as a country.
As early as the 1950s, some people started to argue that there was a lack of consensus on Taiwan's international status based on the San Francisco Peace Treaty and urged the country to decide its international status via a referendum.
However, under the Martial Law period of the warlord Chiang Kai-shek (
"Originally the referendum was considered to be the sole purview and ultimate goal of the political dissident movement, but because of that it has been difficult for the referendum to become a topic of casual discourse," Hsu said.
"The support for the referendum only started to grow during the late 1980s when Chiang Ching-kuo (
During this period, a few referendums were held, including the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant referendum, held by former Taipei Country Commissioner Yu Ching (
Lee Yung-chih (
Under the Lee administration, there were intellectuals in academic, religious and medical circles promoting referendums but in the political circle, there was only "Referendum Chai" (蔡公投) or Trong Chai (蔡同榮), the former chairman of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA), promoting the issue on his return to the country and gaining a seat as a legislator.
"Everyone was concerned with mild reforms such as legislative procedures, mayoral and commissioner elections and constitutional amendments," Lee said.
"The referendum was still considered to be something that would incite Beijing and make trouble, and there did not seem to be a future for it," Lee said.
"Even now, if the government were to hold an independence referendum, it is likely less than half of the voters would support independence. But the reason for the KMT's opposition to the referendum in the 1990s was to deprive the public of the right to participate in politics," he said.
"This is exactly the same mentality the KMT had in its opposition to the re-election of legislators, mayors and commissioners, directly electing the president and constitutional amendments. It is a mentality of refusing to release power," he said.
In 1995, some DPP members started to criticize then-chairman Hsu Hsin-liang (
They decided to leave the DPP and formed the Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP) to insist on a more radical platform of reform and independence.
"The referendum then started to enjoy higher visibility in Taiwan, but because TAIP only had one legislative seat, its strength was too little," said Lee, who once served as TAIP's spokesman.
Taiwan's fourth terrestrial TV station, Formosa Television, was established on June 15, 1997, and Chai, who lost his legislative seat in 1995, was the man behind the scenes. He became the station's chairman, and then promoted the referendum utilizing the station's ability to reach the public. The station produced in-depth programs to explain about referendum experiences in other countries, held referendum forums and hosted talk shows to elaborate on the referendum.
"We even held an 11-day fast in front of the Legislative Yuan in March 1999, trying to get the KMT to work with the DPP and pass the referendum law," said Chai, now a DPP legislator again.
"But in the end, we could only receive promises which did not have any legal effect," he said.
Willpower
Chai and the two academics emphasize that the reason why the referendum will focus society's attention on politics is certainly that it is only happening at all because in the first half of last year, Chen decided to stake his personal credibility on it and make it the flagship policy on which the DPP's continuation in power would hinge.
Last May 20, on the third anniversary of his inauguration, Chen called on the opposition parties to support his call for a "Join the World Health Organization" referendum. Later, as he took part in the "Nuclear-free Homeland Conference" on 27th June, he announced that this year, either on or before the presidential election, there would be a referendum on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant.
Later still, on Sept. 28, at the DPP's 17th anniversary celebrations he further announced that he would be promoting a new constitution and that the draft of that new constitution would be approved by referendum in 2006.
"Political analysts saw Chen's great referendum plans as the turning of fiction into fact, because none of his senior aides had considered a referendum to be the focal point of the presidential election at that time," said political columnist Hu Wen-huei (
They even said that the referendum announcement was made to satisfy former DPP chairman and anti-nuclear activist Lin I-hsiung (
"But they hadn't counted on the people reacting so enthusiastically, much less on the progress of KMT-PFP negotiations, and they underestimated the extent to which the people's wishes have changed. Chen was able to take the lead in all policy areas by talking about referendums, so much so that the pan-blue camp, having first tried to steal the limelight by attacking the state of the economy, had to keep changing tack to keep up with him. Chen mocked them for `honoring him with incense (
The DPP had, in the space of two short years, changed from being cold, frightened and suspicious towards referendums to winning a 70 percent majority backing a national referendum. Lee Yung-chih believes that this hinged on Chen achieving breakthroughs on the world stage, illustrating the importance of Taiwan's international standing and strengthening the people's recognition of the pressure placed on Taiwan by China, resulting in their gradually grasping the theory of using referendums to protect Taiwan.
"Moreover, the DPP's failure to announce the stoppage of construction on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in 2000, causing three months of political turmoil, prompted a strong desire on the part of the people for a collective, final expression of their will to decide the matter," said Lee.
Political developments can be transformed in the twinkling of an eye, and international developments were the decisive factor in the next stage. When the pan-blue camp decided to take part in the referendum and finally found a strategy that enabled it to go on the offensive, rather than the defensive, it did so by using its majority in the Legislative Yuan.
On Nov. 27, after Chen returned victoriously from the US, having only recently overtaken Lien and Soong in the opinion polls, they announced that the KMT would introduce a "bird cage" referendum bill in the legislature on the one hand to meet the expectations of the people, and on the other to place a restriction on the amount of time within which the government would have to hold the referendum, further illustrating the pressures on Chen to take the battle to China without offending the US.
"On this occasion, Chen again used his determination, seizing the window of opportunity presented by interpreting Article 17 of the Referendum Law to call a referendum in order to protect the country and announcing that he was indeed calling `defensive referendum' to be held at the same time as the presidential election. He later changed the term to `peaceful referendum' in order to temper sensitivities. But it attracted international concern, including US disapproval, making Taiwan a `troublemaker' in an instant," Hsu Yung-ming said.
"And at that stage," Hsu said, "The pan-blue camp, which had committed itself fully to referendums, saw the change in the international position and abandoned the referendums it had previously advocated on education, public construction, the economy and so forth."
But Chen refused to withdraw. One reason for this was that the referendum had already become the central issue in the DPP's campaign; to abandon it at this stage would mean failure. He came to terms with the situation, effused goodwill and modified the wording of the referendum questions, restoring the US and Japanese governments' faith.
In February this year, when international pressure dissipated, the pan-blue camp was nevertheless unable to play it down. They had to return to the fray but focus their attack on the legality and constitutionality of the referendum plan.
"By that point the question had become not `yes' or `no' to a referendum, but whether or not to participate in it," said Hsu. "The referendum had finally become a fact of life, confirmed by the Taiwan people."
Trong Chai describes as "unavoidable" the change from his original position that the issue decided by Taiwan's first referendum should be "Oppose one China," and "One country on either side of the Taiwan Strait," to opposing increases in China's missile build-up and calling for mechanisms for peaceful cross-strait negotiations.
"The significance of the first referendum lies in the message it sends to the international community, in consolidating the will of the people, and in setting out on a precise route on which there can be no return. But the impact of the referendum will depend on how high the turnout is," said Chai.
Looking to the future
The Executive Yuan has been deprived of the right to call a referendum; people cannot launch any referendum to change the constitution; and any kind of "public affairs" referendum initiated by people must be examined by a "Referendum Review Committee" comprising figures from all political parties, to discuss whether the issue can in fact be implemented.
This type of decree, which inhibits the free expression of the will of the people, will only be outlawed when the DPP finally secures a majority in the legislature, says Chai.
"The crux of the matter is the resolve of the leader. But with Lee Teng-hui having been in power for 12 years and Chen for four years, the people of Taiwan should already have learnt that impatience leads to defeat, and instead develop a desire for moderation," Chai said.
"Before a new constitution has been drafted, it is too early to talk about Taiwan independence," he said.
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