The recent retreat of Nauru from the circle of Taiwan's diplomatic allies is unlikely to trigger any immediate "domino effect" among Taipei's remaining 27 allies, although Taiwan should remain alert to Beijing's antagonism toward Taipei on the diplomatic frontlines, Taipei-based diplomats and local analysts said.
"The impact of the severance of ties with Nauru will not be as drastic as first feared," said Lin Bih-jaw (
"Nauru is of little significance to Taiwan in its strategic and political standing compared with the rest of Taiwan's diplomatic allies. The subtraction of one diplomatic ally carried nothing but symbolic overtures if one cares about the number of our allies that much," Lin said.
Ovidio Pequeno, Sao Tome and Principe's ambassador to Taiwan, echoed Lin's view.
"I don't buy the story of the `domino effect' because each country is different," said the journalist-turned-ambassador.
Lo Chih-cheng (
Luis Wong, Nicaragua's ambassador to Taiwan, said there was no reason to be "over-alarmed" over the loss of Nauru.
"I am sure the foreign ministry here is always in contact with their individual embassies. ... The same thing happened with Macedonia just about a year ago and I don't think there was such an outburst then," he said.
"Even for practical purposes, I believed Macedonia was more important than Nauru," Wong added.
Taipei broke ties with Skopje on June 18 last year, leaving the Holy See as Taiwan's only ally in Europe.
Ties between Taipei and Skopje saw signs of instability after the May 13 government reshuffle last year that saw the integration of anti-Taiwan forces into the coalition government.
Taiwan and Macedonia established diplomatic ties in January 1999. Angered by the accord, China broke off ties with Macedonia the following month and vetoed the continuation of a UN peacekeeping mission in Macedonia in its capacity as one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
But analysts still cautioned Taipei to prepare for escalating pressure from Beijing at the diplomatic frontlines.
"Beijing has been willing to spend such a large sum of money luring an insignificant country such as Nauru to drop Taipei for Beijing," said Lin, who was the deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council under former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝).
"So it's not hard to imagine that China will be more than willing to spend a lot more cash in order to lure countries that have carried much more importance to Taiwan to come to its fold, such as such as Panama and the Vatican," Lin said.
China has always been a cold-hearted realist, specialized in "careful calculation" in expanding its external ties, he said, so Taiwan should not uphold any "naive illusions" that Beijing offer a diplomatic truce to Taipei.
Lo, who had been working for the foreign ministry up until this spring, cautioned that Taipei should remain alert to Beijing's continuous "offensive" moves to lure away Taipei's diplomatic allies.
"We have to wait and see whether Beijing will go so far as triggering a large-scale war at the diplomatic frontlines. If so, the competition between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will escalate, and so will cross-strait tensions," Lo cautioned.
But Taipei-based diplomats from Taiwan's diplomatic allies said they were confident in the solidity of ties between Taipei and their respective countries.
"The relationship between Palau and Taiwan are very strong. We are much closer," said Jeff Ngirarsa, charge d'affaires at Palau's embassy in Taipei.
Ngirarsa gave the example of the arrival of a Palau doctor, Manix Jonathan, earlier this month for a five-year internship at the pathology department in Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital.
Wong said that although his country could not close its borders to a commercial delegation from China that arrived recently -- given that Nicaragua, China and Taiwan are all WTO members -- his government strictly limited the level of officials the delegation met in Nicaragua.
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