The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday raised its forecast for this year’s GDP growth from 0.84 percent it projected in July to 1.03 percent, citing stronger-than-expected growth momentum in the first half, which might continue through the rest of the year.
However, experts warned that the modest upward revision is no cause for relief or excitement, as the nation leans on exports by a few technology sectors, while Chinese rivals are catching up.
“Even if GDP growth exceeds the 1 percent mark, it remains fragile,” Department of Statistics Director-General Yeh Maan-tzwu (葉滿足) told a panel discussion after the Taipei-based think tank delivered its quarterly growth update.
Photo: Wang Meng-lun, Taipei Times
The economy might have grown 1.15 percent last quarter and 2.46 percent this quarter after expanding a mild 0.21 percent in the first six months, CIER researcher Peng Su-ling (彭素玲) said.
Exports — including goods and services — might make no contribution to economic growth this year, but that is still better than a previously forecast drag, Peng said, adding that external demand remains soft, although it is improving.
The 1.03 percent growth estimate is close to the 1.06 percent growth prediction by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) in August.
However, it still lags behind the average growth rate of 3 percent in recent years, Yeh said.
Industrial overconcentration in the electronics sector is deepening, Yeh said, adding that semiconductor manufacturers are singlehandedly driving exports and increasing capital spending.
Taiwanese chipmakers have achieved a decent increase in business this year, even though their global peers have been taking a hit from the global slowdown, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (台灣半導體協會) director-general Nicky Lu (盧超群) said.
However, Yeh raised concerns over the sustainability of the uneven growth, as China, the No. 1 destination for Taiwanese exports, is grooming its own semiconductor firms, which could grow to be formidable rivals.
A paradigm shift is also taking place from an emphasis on hardware investment to software development, which is unfavorable for local manufacturers, as many supply components for global technology brands, Yeh said.
Academia Sinica economics researcher Kamhon Kan (簡錦漢) shared some of Yeh’s concerns, saying that industrial overconcentration is not an issue as long as Taiwanese firms can maintain their leadership status.
However, Beijing has unveiled a timetable to cut its dependence on exports, and Taiwan would suffer the most due to its substantial trade ties with China, Kan said.
CIER’s growth forecast of 1.81 percent for next year might prove overly optimistic, Kan added.
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
BULLY TACTICS: Beijing has continued its incursions into Taiwan’s airspace even as Xi Jinping talked about Taiwan being part of the Chinese family and nation China should stop its coercion of Taiwan and respect mainstream public opinion in Taiwan about sovereignty if its expression of goodwill is genuine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said yesterday. Ministry spokesman Jeff Liu (劉永健) made the comment in response to media queries about a meeting between former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) the previous day. Ma voiced support for the so-called “1992 consensus,” while Xi said that although the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have “different systems,” this does not change the fact that they are “part of the same country,” and that “external
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source