Police yesterday searched the offices of Xfuture.org, also known as the Exchange of Future Events (未來事件交易所), following allegations that the collaboration between the Center for Prediction Markets at National Chengchi University and xPredict Ltd has been running underground gambling on the Nov. 29 elections.
Xfuture chief executive officer Anson Hung (洪耀南) denied the accusation and said the motivation for the search was political.
The election forecast Web site is known for its relatively high precision and bases its predictions on “prediction markets,” in which participants “buy” and “sell” contracts on future incidents based on the idea of a futures exchange.
Photo: Lin Cheng-kung, Taipei Times
Police searched the company’s offices in Taipei’s Songshan District (松山) and New Taipei City’s Xizhi District (汐止) after the Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office on Tuesday issued two warrants.
The prosecutors’ office said police found online information indicating that the organization has been facilitating bets on the Nov. 29 nine-in-one elections. The investigation is ongoing, it added.
The company released a press statement soon after the search, calling it “politically motivated.”
“During the 2012 presidential election period, the Web site was forced to close down by the Central Election Commission [CEC] and this year, we have so far received plenty of official documents from the CEC and local election commissions expressing their concerns. We are now a private prediction market in which only registered members can participate, and still we have been subjected to a search over suspicions of gambling. We strongly suspect that the allegation is politically motivated and with a political aim,” Hung said.
Hung said it “might not be defamation, but we strongly suspect that there is a political motive behind this.”
When asked what kind of political motivation it could be, Hung did not respond directly, but said that prediction markets are open, commonly seen abroad and legal insofar as opinion polls — according to which predictions are also made — are allowed.
When questioned by Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Pasuya Yao (姚文智) yesterday in the legislature’s Internal Administration Committee, Criminal Investigation Bureau Commissioner Hu Mu-yuan (胡木源) said that whether the site’s operators had broken the law had to be determined by the prosecutors.
Hu said the police were tipped off that the Web site’s registered members are offered 500 points upon registering and can be awarded with cash if their predictions prove correct. The police, based on the Web site’s content, asked the prosecutors to issue a search warrant, Hu said.
Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), a professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies and director of the university’s Center for Prediction Markets, said that while he could not pinpoint the kind of political factors that might be lurking behind the incident without further evidence, “since the Web site has been in commercial operation for at least four years, we cannot help but suspect it had to do with the year-end nine-in-one elections.”
When asked about the cash-as-award charge raised by Hu, Tung said rewards are given to engaged participants (NT$5,000 at most according to the Web site), but members’ points cannot be exchanged for cash.
“I know someone who has accumulated at least 100 million points in his account, but they cannot be exchanged for cash,” he said.
He said law enforcers might not understand the workings of prediction markets sufficiently, as these are a relatively new social science method used for predictions.
“We are quite clear about the nation’s regulations on gambling and would not have gotten ourselves ensnared in a gambling controversy,” he said.
CALL FOR SUPPORT: President William Lai called on lawmakers across party lines to ensure the livelihood of Taiwanese and that national security is protected President William Lai (賴清德) yesterday called for bipartisan support for Taiwan’s investment in self-defense capabilities at the christening and launch of two coast guard vessels at CSBC Corp, Taiwan’s (台灣國際造船) shipyard in Kaohsiung. The Taipei (台北) is the fourth and final ship of the Chiayi-class offshore patrol vessels, and the Siraya (西拉雅) is the Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) first-ever ocean patrol vessel, the government said. The Taipei is the fourth and final ship of the Chiayi-class offshore patrol vessels with a displacement of about 4,000 tonnes, Lai said. This ship class was ordered as a result of former president Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) 2018
UKRAINE, NVIDIA: The US leader said the subject of Russia’s war had come up ‘very strongly,’ while Jenson Huang was hoping that the conversation was good Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and US President Donald Trump had differing takes following their meeting in Busan, South Korea, yesterday. Xi said that the two sides should complete follow-up work as soon as possible to deliver tangible results that would provide “peace of mind” to China, the US and the rest of the world, while Trump hailed the “great success” of the talks. The two discussed trade, including a deal to reduce tariffs slapped on China for its role in the fentanyl trade, as well as cooperation in ending the war in Ukraine, among other issues, but they did not mention
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi yesterday lavished US President Donald Trump with praise and vows of a “golden age” of ties on his visit to Tokyo, before inking a deal with Washington aimed at securing critical minerals. Takaichi — Japan’s first female prime minister — pulled out all the stops for Trump in her opening test on the international stage and even announced that she would nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize, the White House said. Trump has become increasingly focused on the Nobel since his return to power in January and claims to have ended several conflicts around the world,
GLOBAL PROJECT: Underseas cables ‘are the nervous system of democratic connectivity,’ which is under stress, Member of the European Parliament Rihards Kols said The government yesterday launched an initiative to promote global cooperation on improved security of undersea cables, following reported disruptions of such cables near Taiwan and around the world. The Management Initiative on International Undersea Cables aims to “bring together stakeholders, align standards, promote best practices and turn shared concerns into beneficial cooperation,” Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said at a seminar in Taipei. The project would be known as “RISK,” an acronym for risk mitigation, information sharing, systemic reform and knowledge building, he said at the seminar, titled “Taiwan-Europe Subsea Cable Security Cooperation Forum.” Taiwan sits at a vital junction on
RSS