Police yesterday searched the offices of Xfuture.org, also known as the Exchange of Future Events (未來事件交易所), following allegations that the collaboration between the Center for Prediction Markets at National Chengchi University and xPredict Ltd has been running underground gambling on the Nov. 29 elections.
Xfuture chief executive officer Anson Hung (洪耀南) denied the accusation and said the motivation for the search was political.
The election forecast Web site is known for its relatively high precision and bases its predictions on “prediction markets,” in which participants “buy” and “sell” contracts on future incidents based on the idea of a futures exchange.
Photo: Lin Cheng-kung, Taipei Times
Police searched the company’s offices in Taipei’s Songshan District (松山) and New Taipei City’s Xizhi District (汐止) after the Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office on Tuesday issued two warrants.
The prosecutors’ office said police found online information indicating that the organization has been facilitating bets on the Nov. 29 nine-in-one elections. The investigation is ongoing, it added.
The company released a press statement soon after the search, calling it “politically motivated.”
“During the 2012 presidential election period, the Web site was forced to close down by the Central Election Commission [CEC] and this year, we have so far received plenty of official documents from the CEC and local election commissions expressing their concerns. We are now a private prediction market in which only registered members can participate, and still we have been subjected to a search over suspicions of gambling. We strongly suspect that the allegation is politically motivated and with a political aim,” Hung said.
Hung said it “might not be defamation, but we strongly suspect that there is a political motive behind this.”
When asked what kind of political motivation it could be, Hung did not respond directly, but said that prediction markets are open, commonly seen abroad and legal insofar as opinion polls — according to which predictions are also made — are allowed.
When questioned by Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Pasuya Yao (姚文智) yesterday in the legislature’s Internal Administration Committee, Criminal Investigation Bureau Commissioner Hu Mu-yuan (胡木源) said that whether the site’s operators had broken the law had to be determined by the prosecutors.
Hu said the police were tipped off that the Web site’s registered members are offered 500 points upon registering and can be awarded with cash if their predictions prove correct. The police, based on the Web site’s content, asked the prosecutors to issue a search warrant, Hu said.
Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), a professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies and director of the university’s Center for Prediction Markets, said that while he could not pinpoint the kind of political factors that might be lurking behind the incident without further evidence, “since the Web site has been in commercial operation for at least four years, we cannot help but suspect it had to do with the year-end nine-in-one elections.”
When asked about the cash-as-award charge raised by Hu, Tung said rewards are given to engaged participants (NT$5,000 at most according to the Web site), but members’ points cannot be exchanged for cash.
“I know someone who has accumulated at least 100 million points in his account, but they cannot be exchanged for cash,” he said.
He said law enforcers might not understand the workings of prediction markets sufficiently, as these are a relatively new social science method used for predictions.
“We are quite clear about the nation’s regulations on gambling and would not have gotten ourselves ensnared in a gambling controversy,” he said.
NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT: An official said that Guan Guan’s comments had gone beyond the threshold of free speech, as she advocated for the destruction of the ROC China-born media influencer Guan Guan’s (關關) residency permit has been revoked for repeatedly posting pro-China content that threatens national security, the National Immigration Agency said yesterday. Guan Guan has said many controversial things in her videos posted to Douyin (抖音), including “the red flag will soon be painted all over Taiwan” and “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China,” while expressing hope for expedited “reunification.” The agency received multiple reports alleging that Guan Guan had advocated for armed reunification last year. After investigating, the agency last month issued a notice requiring her to appear and account for her actions. Guan Guan appeared as required,
Japan and the Philippines yesterday signed a defense pact that would allow the tax-free provision of ammunition, fuel, food and other necessities when their forces stage joint training to boost deterrence against China’s growing aggression in the region and to bolster their preparation for natural disasters. Japan has faced increasing political, trade and security tensions with China, which was angered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remark that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a survival-threatening situation for Japan, triggering a military response. Japan and the Philippines have also had separate territorial conflicts with Beijing in the East and South China
A strong cold air mass is expected to arrive tonight, bringing a change in weather and a drop in temperature, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The coldest time would be early on Thursday morning, with temperatures in some areas dipping as low as 8°C, it said. Daytime highs yesterday were 22°C to 24°C in northern and eastern Taiwan, and about 25°C to 28°C in the central and southern regions, it said. However, nighttime lows would dip to about 15°C to 16°C in central and northern Taiwan as well as the northeast, and 17°C to 19°C elsewhere, it said. Tropical Storm Nokaen, currently
PAPERS, PLEASE: The gang exploited the high value of the passports, selling them at inflated prices to Chinese buyers, who would treat them as ‘invisibility cloaks’ The Yilan District Court has handed four members of a syndicate prison terms ranging from one year and two months to two years and two months for their involvement in a scheme to purchase Taiwanese passports and resell them abroad at a massive markup. A Chinese human smuggling syndicate purchased Taiwanese passports through local criminal networks, exploiting the passports’ visa-free travel privileges to turn a profit of more than 20 times the original price, the court said. Such criminal organizations enable people to impersonate Taiwanese when entering and exiting Taiwan and other countries, undermining social order and the credibility of the nation’s
RSS