The economy may grow by less than 2 percent for a second consecutive year after the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday cut its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.74 percent.
The agency’s latest forecast is 0.57 percentage points lower than the forecast of 2.31 percent it made in August and is the lowest among domestic economic institutes.
“Current economic sentiment in Taiwan is quite sluggish and it lacks a major growth driver,” DGBAS statistics division director Tsai Hung-kun (蔡鴻坤) told a press conference.
Worse-than-expected economic performance in the fourth quarter, mainly due to deteriorating exports, was the major factor that led the DGBAS to revise downward its full-year GDP growth forecast.
Exports in the fourth quarter may slow to US$75.9 billion, a decrease of 2.03 percent from the same period last year, which means full-year exports would only rise by 0.44 percent from last year to US$302.5 billion, the agency said in its quarterly report.
This led to the DGBAS forecasting 1.22 percent year-on-year expansion for the economy in the fourth quarter, down from the 2.61 percent forecast it made in August. That would also make for the slowest GDP quarterly growth since the second quarter last year.
DGBAS section chief Joshua Gau (高志祥) expressed concern that the headwinds facing the export sector may become a long-term issue, as China starts to manufacture more products locally, boosting domestic supply and dragging down demand for Taiwanese goods.
In addition, newly added production in the local manufacturing sector has shown a significant decline over the past few years as Taiwan plays a less important role in the global supply chain for electronics products, Gau said.
Private investment is expected to expand 5.32 percent from a year ago, the report showed.
However, “other than the semiconductor sector, other Taiwanese industries still lack investment momentum,” Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics Minister Shih Su-mei (石素梅) said.
Private consumption is expected to increase 1.46 percent this year, the report showed.
The agency also cut its forecast for economic growth next year to 2.59 percent from the 3.37 percent it had previously forecast, with exports, private consumption and private investment expected to rise 3.07 percent, 1.72 percent and 4.37 percent from this year respectively.
The DGBAS said that boosting private consumption would be a challenge because of a limited increase in average salary.
Inflation could surge 1.21 percent annually next year, following a mild 0.94 percent increase this year, the report said.
PROVOCATIVE: Chinese Deputy Ambassador to the UN Sun Lei accused Japan of sending military vessels to deliberately provoke tensions in the Taiwan Strait China denounced remarks by Japan and the EU about the South China Sea at a UN Security Council meeting on Monday, and accused Tokyo of provocative behavior in the Taiwan Strait and planning military expansion. Ayano Kunimitsu, a Japanese vice foreign minister, told the Council meeting on maritime security that Tokyo was seriously concerned about the situation in the East China and South China seas, and reiterated Japan’s opposition to any attempt to change the “status quo” by force, and obstruction of freedom of navigation and overflight. Stavros Lambrinidis, head of the EU delegation to the UN, also highlighted South China Sea
The final batch of 28 M1A2T Abrams tanks purchased from the US arrived at Taipei Port last night and were transported to the Armor Training Command in Hsinchu County’s Hukou Township (湖口), completing the military’s multi-year procurement of 108 of the tanks. Starting at 12:10am today, reporters observed more than a dozen civilian flatbed trailers departing from Taipei Port, each carrying an M1A2T tank covered with black waterproof tarps. Escorted by military vehicles, the convoy traveled via the West Coast Expressway to the Armor Training Command, with police implementing traffic control. The army operates about 1,000 tanks, including CM-11 Brave Tiger
China on Wednesday teased in a video an aircraft carrier that could be its fourth, and the first using nuclear power, while making an allusion to Taiwan and vowing to further build up its islands, as it looks to boost maritime power, secure resources and bolster territorial claims. The video, issued on the eve of the 77th founding anniversary of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, featured fictional officers with names that are homophones of three commissioned aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (遼寧), Shandong (山東) and Fujian (福建). Titled Into the Deep, it showed a 19-year-old named “Hejian” (何劍) joining the group, sparking
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, said it expects its 2-nanometer (2nm) chip capacity to grow at a compound annual rate of 70 percent from this year to 2028. The projection comes as five fabs begin volume production of 2-nanometer chips this year — two in Hsinchu and three in Kaohsiung — TSMC senior vice president and deputy cochief operating officer Cliff Hou (侯永清) said at the company’s annual technology symposium in Silicon Valley, California, last week. Output in the first year of 2-nanometer production, which began in the fourth quarter of last year, is expected to
RSS