A major new Pentagon report on the Chinese military says China is on track to build a modern military by 2020 and that despite improvements in relations across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan remains the principal focus of the Chinese military.
Fueled by its booming economy, China’s military growth in the past decade has exceeded most US forecasts.
Its aircraft carrier program, cyber warfare capabilities and anti-satellite missiles have alarmed neighbors and Washington, the long-delayed comprehensive 84-page report says.
Photo: Wang Min-wei, Taipei Times
While the report contains nothing that is startlingly new, it is dominated by references to Taiwan. And it comes just weeks before the administration of US President Barack Obama has promised to provide an answer to Taipei’s request to buy 66 advanced F-16C/D aircraft.
This potential arms sale is not mentioned, but without actually spelling it out the study makes it abundantly clear that Taiwan is in desperate need of new weapons.
Titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011, the annual report to Congress from the US Department of Defense makes chilling reading.
The Obama administration continues to deny that a decision has yet been made on whether or not to sell the F-16s, but unofficial sources in both Taipei and Washington are signaling that Obama will bow to Chinese pressure and not allow the sale. Instead, he seems likely to offer to modernize Taiwan’s dated F-16A/B aircraft — a move that is less objectionable to Beijing.
China’s rise as a major international actor will stand out as a defining feature of the strategic landscape of the early 21st century, the report says.
And China’s modernized military could be used in ways that increase Beijing’s ability to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favor, the report says.
Nowhere is that more the case, the report makes obvious, than in Beijing’s dealings with Taiwan.
“The PLA [People’s Liberation Army] seeks the capability to deter Taiwan independence and influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing’s terms,” it says.
“In pursuit of this objective, Beijing is developing capabilities intended to deter, delay, or deny possible US support for the island in the event of conflict,” it says.
“The balance of cross-Strait military forces and capabilities continues to shift in the mainland’s [China’s] favor,” it says.
Despite the warming cross-strait ties under President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), the report says, China has continued to build its forces in a way that threatens Taiwan.
“In the current decade to 2020, the PLA is likely to steadily expand its military options for Taiwan,” it says.
“Consistent with a near-term focus on preparing for Taiwan Strait contingencies, China continues to base many of its most advanced systems in the military regions opposite Taiwan,” it says.
On top of the huge numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at Taiwan, the report says China bases 490 combat aircraft within operational range of Taiwan and has the airfield capacity to expand that number by hundreds, as well as about 400,000 of its 1.25 million soldiers based in three military regions opposite Taiwan.
“The possibility of a military conflict with Taiwan, including US military intervention, remains a pressing, long-term focus for the PLA,” the report says.
“In the absence of a peaceful cross-Strait resolution or long-term non-aggression pact, the Taiwan mission will likely continue to dominate PLA modernization and operational planning,” it says.
Although the Chinese military probably lacks the necessary military power to successfully conduct a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, the report says, it is working to close the gaps in its capabilities.
“Furthermore, Taiwan’s relatively modest defense spending has failed to keep pace with ambitious military developments on the mainland,” it says.
The report says Beijing seeks to deter Taiwanese moves toward independence and seeks to achieve unification with a carrot and stick approach.
“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] strives to integrate the two economies while advancing cultural and historic ties. Politically, China has sought to expand ties with the [Chinese Nationalist Party] KMT Party on Taiwan while attempting to isolate political entities with more overtly pro-independence leanings,” it says.
“The PRC employs economic enticement, propaganda, and political engagement in pursuit of these objectives,” it says.
According to the report, the military component of China’s strategy is intended to create an impression on Taiwan that accommodation with Beijing is ultimately in Taiwan’s best interest.
“Beijing appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believes long-term reunification [sic] remains possible and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits,” it says.
US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Michael Schiffer told a Pentagon press briefing on the report that the pace and scope of China’s sustained military investments had allowed Beijing to pursue capabilities that “we believe are potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation, and may contribute to regional tensions and anxieties.”
He said the report pointed to cross-strait trends that created a very challenging military and security environment.
The US was committed to working with Taiwan, to meet its -commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and to ensure that Taipei had the self-defense capabilities that it needed, Schiffer said.
Asked directly about the possible sale of F-16C/Ds, Schiffer said: “There have been no decisions that have been made on arms sales to Taiwan.”
“This is an issue that we continue to work with on a daily basis and consistent with our obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States will provide to Taiwan the self-defense capabilities that it requires,” he said.
“It’s a challenging security environment across a number of different dimensions,” he said when pressed on the possible sale.
There was no “silver bullet that will all of a sudden change everything,” he said.
In Taipei, the Ministry of National Defense again urged the US government to speed up the sale of defensive weapons to Taiwan.
Ministry spokesman David Lo (羅紹和) said the report again highlighted the cross-strait military imbalance.
Based on this reasoning, Ma has repeatedly called on the US to supply defensive arms to Taiwan in accordance with the TRA, Lo said.
He said the ministry has continued in its efforts to persuade Washington to provide F-16C/D aircraft, F-16A/B upgrades and diesel-electric submarines.
The Chinese government has yet to give its official response to the report, but Xinhua news agency fired the first shot in an English-language commentary yesterday, condemning the report as an alarmist “cock-and-bull story” that was “based on a wild guess and illogical reasoning.”
“China, which has adhered to a defensive military policy, with its rising economic clout and sprawling commercial and strategic interests around the world, has every right to build a competent military,” it said.
Xinhua called the Pentagon’s conclusions “much ado about nothing,” and said Chinese people thought it “baffling” that the US could criticize China when its own military spending was 40 percent of the world’s total last year.
Additional reporting by Reuters and CNA
POLITICAL AGENDA: Beijing’s cross-strait Mid-Autumn Festival events are part of a ‘cultural united front’ aimed at promoting unification with Taiwan, academics said Local authorities in China have been inviting Taiwanese to participate in cross-strait Mid-Autumn Festival celebrations centered around ideals of “family and nation,” a move Taiwanese academics said politicizes the holiday to promote the idea of “one family” across the Taiwan Strait. Sources said that China’s Fujian Provincial Government is organizing about 20 cross-strait-themed events in cities including Quanzhou, Nanping, Sanming and Zhangzhou. In Zhangzhou, a festival scheduled for Wednesday is to showcase Minnan-language songs and budaixi (布袋戲) glove puppetry to highlight cultural similarities between Taiwan and the region. Elsewhere, Jiangsu Province is hosting more than 10 similar celebrations in Taizhou, Changzhou, Suzhou,
The Republic of China (ROC) is celebrating its 114th Double Ten National Day today, featuring military parades and a variety of performances and speeches in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei. The Taiwan Taiko Association opened the celebrations with a 100-drummer performance, including young percussionists. As per tradition, an air force Mirage 2000 fighter jet flew over the Presidential Office as a part of the performance. The Honor Guards of the ROC and its marching band also heralded in a military parade. Students from Taichung's Shin Min High School then followed with a colorful performance using floral imagery to represent Taiwan's alternate name
COGNITIVE WARFARE: Chinese fishing boats transmitting fake identification signals are meant to test Taiwan’s responses to different kinds of perceived incursions, a report said Chinese vessels are transmitting fake signals in Taiwan’s waters as a form of cognitive warfare, testing Taipei’s responses to various types of incursions, a report by the Institute for the Study of War said on Friday. Several Chinese fishing vessels transmitted fake automatic identification system (AIS) signals in Taiwan’s waters last month, with one mimicking a Russian warship and another impersonating a Chinese law enforcement vessel, the report said. Citing data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence, the report said that throughout August and last month, the Chinese fishing boat Minshiyu 06718 (閩獅漁06718) sailed through the Taiwan Strait while intermittently transmitting its own AIS
CHINESE INFILTRATION: Medical logistics is a lifeline during wartime and the reported CCP links of a major logistics company present a national security threat, an expert said The government would bolster its security check system to prevent China from infiltrating the nation’s medical cold chain, a national security official said yesterday. The official, who wished to stay anonymous, made the remarks after the Chinese-language magazine Mirror Media (鏡周刊) reported that Pharma Logistics (嘉里醫藥物流) is in charge of the medical logistics of about half of the nation’s major hospitals, including National Taiwan University Hospital and Taipei Veterans General Hospital. The company’s parent, Kerry TJ Logistics Co (嘉里大榮物流), is associated with the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the
RSS