Former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairman Richard Bush yesterday expressed concern about whether Taiwan’s democratic system, which he said is “polarized” and “divided,” could withstand Beijing’s efforts to bring about unification.
Before wrapping up his short visit to Taipei, Bush remarked on the state of cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s democratic system during a roundtable discussion at a symposium entitled “A Spectacular Century: The Republic of China (ROC) Centennial Democracy Forums.”
In his speech, Bush discussed how the development of cross-strait relations might have constrained the choices available to Taiwan’s political system, examining how changes to the balance of power might have impacted Taiwan’s democracy.
Regarding de jure independence, Bush said he has found that this choice for Taiwan’s future might possibly still exist, but it has been constrained.
“My conclusion is very simple: That 15 years after the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, China effectively deters Taiwan from making this choice — de jure independence. It builds up its military power in a significant way and is able when necessary to stimulate the United States to get involved in this issue,” he said.
Bush said he was not very worried about the possible impact asymmetric economic interdependence between China and Taiwan might have.
He also downplayed fears that Taiwanese businesspeople operating in China have sought to exert influence on political issues in the Taiwanese political system.
“[Taiwanese businesspeople] may seek to have influence on economic policy, as you expect, but so far they have not acted politically,” he said.
Regarding the possibility that economic asymmetry could make Taiwan vulnerable to Beijing withdrawing trade to add issues to the cross-strait agenda that hitherto have not been included, Bush said that “if they [China] believe that time is on their side, then economic coercion is far less likely.”
“The available research here suggests that interdependence works both ways and that vulnerability is mutual,” Bush said, adding that economic sanctions against Taiwan would hurt China as well.
Bush disagreed with claims by Taiwanese opposition parties that President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration has somehow undermined Taiwan’s sovereignty by signing 15 cross-strait agreements since coming to office.
“My conclusion is that actually the principle of ‘mutual non-denial’ is operating in these agreements and in these negotiations, and more significantly, cross-strait relations have been becoming increasingly intergovernmental, and that in a way strengthen Taiwan’s sovereignty,” he said.
Bush also examined the impact of cross-strait relations on Taiwan’s democracy from the perspective of the will of the public.
“[Whether] Taiwan’s public, through the democratic system, will maintain the will to preserve its status quo — to resist China’s intrigue — I think that’s an open question,” he said.
continued on page 3
Bush, who now serves as the director of the Brookings Institution’s Center for Northeast Asia Policy Studies, said that he takes seriously the challenges that Taiwan’s political system faces when China has been working to create a situation in which “economy determines politics.”
“So this raises a question: What does Taiwan and its political system have to do to strengthen the public’s confidence and maintain the preference for status quo as opposed to some form of unification?” he asked.
Toward the end of his speech, Bush made mention of how the “one country, two systems” formula works in Hong Kong, saying that the approach “does keep certain outcomes off the agenda.”
“It [one country, two systems] is structured in a way that has made it impossible for a democratic party leader to become chief executive and for the democratic party to win a majority in the legislative council. And no one knows whether China would seek to apply that model to Taiwan in a unification scenario, but it’s an important point of reference,” Bush said.
In his concluding remarks, Bush said that Taiwan needs to improve its democratic system so that it better reflects the views of Taiwanese and is more responsive to the many challenges that society faces.
“I would like to say that political leaders need to work together to foster a better consensus on Taiwan’s core interests and how to protect them. As long as the political system remaines polarized and divided, that consensus cannot be built, and Taiwan cannot face the challenges of the cross-strait relations in an appropriate way,” Bush said.
NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT: An official said that Guan Guan’s comments had gone beyond the threshold of free speech, as she advocated for the destruction of the ROC China-born media influencer Guan Guan’s (關關) residency permit has been revoked for repeatedly posting pro-China content that threatens national security, the National Immigration Agency said yesterday. Guan Guan has said many controversial things in her videos posted to Douyin (抖音), including “the red flag will soon be painted all over Taiwan” and “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China,” while expressing hope for expedited “reunification.” The agency received multiple reports alleging that Guan Guan had advocated for armed reunification last year. After investigating, the agency last month issued a notice requiring her to appear and account for her actions. Guan Guan appeared as required,
A strong cold air mass is expected to arrive tonight, bringing a change in weather and a drop in temperature, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The coldest time would be early on Thursday morning, with temperatures in some areas dipping as low as 8°C, it said. Daytime highs yesterday were 22°C to 24°C in northern and eastern Taiwan, and about 25°C to 28°C in the central and southern regions, it said. However, nighttime lows would dip to about 15°C to 16°C in central and northern Taiwan as well as the northeast, and 17°C to 19°C elsewhere, it said. Tropical Storm Nokaen, currently
PAPERS, PLEASE: The gang exploited the high value of the passports, selling them at inflated prices to Chinese buyers, who would treat them as ‘invisibility cloaks’ The Yilan District Court has handed four members of a syndicate prison terms ranging from one year and two months to two years and two months for their involvement in a scheme to purchase Taiwanese passports and resell them abroad at a massive markup. A Chinese human smuggling syndicate purchased Taiwanese passports through local criminal networks, exploiting the passports’ visa-free travel privileges to turn a profit of more than 20 times the original price, the court said. Such criminal organizations enable people to impersonate Taiwanese when entering and exiting Taiwan and other countries, undermining social order and the credibility of the nation’s
‘SALAMI-SLICING’: Beijing’s ‘gray zone’ tactics around the Pratas Islands have been slowly intensifying, with the PLA testing Taiwan’s responses and limits, an expert said The Ministry of National Defense yesterday condemned an intrusion by a Chinese drone into the airspace of the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) as a serious disruption of regional peace. The ministry said it detected the Chinese surveillance and reconnaissance drone entering the southwestern parts of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone early yesterday, and it approached the Pratas Islands at 5:41am. The ministry said it immediately notified the garrison stationed in the area to enhance aerial surveillance and alert levels, and the drone was detected in the islands’ territorial airspace at 5:44am, maintaining an altitude outside the effective range of air-defense weaponry. Following
RSS