A new longer-range ballistic missile allegedly deployed by China and the introduction of multiple warhead capabilities could render obsolete Taiwan’s most advanced missile interceptors, analysts said yesterday.
National Security Bureau (NSB) Director Tsai Der-sheng (蔡得勝) told the legislature on Wednesday that China had recently begun deploying Dong Feng-16 (DF-16) ballistic missiles with a range of between 800km and 1,000km, and that some were targeting Taiwan.
One US expert with years of experience monitoring developments in China’s missile arsenal told the Taipei Times that while literature on the DF-16 was scarce, the fact that a different designation had been referenced implied that the system was sufficiently different from existing missiles.
Photo: China Military Online
Another, Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington, said chances the DF-16 is the “real deal” were high, adding that the new system would likely incorporate advances in solid rocket fuel, guidance and warhead design. He admitted this was the first time he had seen references to the DF-16 designation.
Alarmingly, the faster re-entry of a longer-range ballistic missile such as the DF-16 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of Taiwan’s PAC-3 missile interceptors that were acquired at great cost from the US and which are still in the process of being deployed.
The longer the range of a ballistic missile, the higher it must climb to reach its target and the higher it climbs, the more time it takes for it to fall to the ground, giving gravity more time to accelerate the descent of the warhead at a rate of about 9.8m per second squared.
“All the PAC-3s are not yet in the field, but when they are, they can potentially be defeated by the faster 1,000km DF-16,” Fisher said.
In addition, new long-range missiles would give China’s leadership the ability to make “peace gestures,” such as withdrawing older DF-15s, without any substantial reduction of military pressure on Taiwan, he said.
The removal of some missiles targeting Taiwan has been touted as a potential “goodwill” gesture by Beijing to help President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) get re-elected next year.
Ballistic missiles with a range such as that attributed to the DF-16 could be deployed at the Second Artillery’s 52 Base in Anhui Province and target Taiwan as well as US bases in the region, such as Okinawa and Guam.
According to a study by the Project 2049 Institute, 52 Base oversees five short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) brigades and as many as three medium-range ballistic missile brigades. It remains unclear whether 52 Base is being equipped with a new brigade for the DF-16 or whether they would replace older SRBMs.
Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief for Defense News, was more skeptical on the DF-16 representing a new type of missile, saying it was likely a variant of the existing DF-15, which has a range of about 600km.
“Honestly, I can’t see how all the US analysts missed it, if it is ‘deployed,’” Minnick said. “I suspect he [Tsai] is saying the DF-15 extended range is the new ‘DF-16,’ but the lack of details during his testimony annoys me to no end.”
“It’s possible they [the government] are trying to scare the US into releasing new F-16 fighters and submarines,” Minnick said.
During his presentation, Tsai also said that most of China’s missiles now had multiple warheads capable of hitting different targets, such as radar sites and planes at airports.
While it is known that the DF-21 “aircraft carrier killer” — which Tsai said was also recently deployed — has multiple warheads, news that smaller missiles in the Chinese arsenal have multiple reentry vehicles (MRVs) would be a worrying development, Fisher said.
“PAC-3s can only handle one incoming missile target, not [several] MRVs,” he said, adding that the US had recently canceled a missile defense program intended to give missile interceptors the ability to take out MRVs.
NEXT GENERATION: The four plants in the Central Taiwan Science Park, designated Fab 25, would consist of four 1.4-nanometer wafer manufacturing plants, TSMC said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) plans to begin construction of four new plants later this year, with the aim to officially launch production of 2-nanometer semiconductor wafers by late 2028, Central Taiwan Science Park Bureau director-general Hsu Maw-shin (許茂新) said. Hsu made the announcement at an event on Friday evening celebrating the Central Taiwan Science Park’s 22nd anniversary. The second phase of the park’s expansion would commence with the initial construction of water detention ponds and other structures aimed at soil and water conservation, Hsu said. TSMC has officially leased the land, with the Central Taiwan Science Park having handed over the
AUKUS: The Australian Ambassador to the US said his country is working with the Pentagon and he is confident that submarine issues will be resolved Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd on Friday said that if Taiwan were to fall to China’s occupation, it would unleash China’s military capacities and capabilities more broadly. He also said his country is working with the Pentagon on the US Department of Defense’s review of the AUKUS submarine project and is confident that all issues raised will be resolved. Rudd, who served as Australian prime minister from 2007 to 2010 and for three months in 2013, made the remarks at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado and stressed the longstanding US-Australia alliance and his close relationship with the US Undersecretary
‘WORLD WAR III’: Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said the aid would inflame tensions, but her amendment was rejected 421 votes against six The US House of Representatives on Friday passed the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for fiscal 2026, which includes US$500 million for Taiwan. The bill, which totals US$831.5 billion in discretionary spending, passed in a 221-209 vote. According to the bill, the funds for Taiwan would be administered by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency and would remain available through Sept. 30, 2027, for the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative. The legislation authorizes the US Secretary of Defense, with the agreement of the US Secretary of State, to use the funds to assist Taiwan in procuring defense articles and services, and military training. Republican Representative
TAIWAN IS TAIWAN: US Representative Tom Tiffany said the amendment was not controversial, as ‘Taiwan is not — nor has it ever been — part of Communist China’ The US House of Representatives on Friday passed an amendment banning the US Department of Defense from creating, buying or displaying any map that shows Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The “Honest Maps” amendment was approved in a voice vote on Friday as part of the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for the 2026 fiscal year. The amendment prohibits using any funds from the act to create, buy or display maps that show Taiwan, Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu, Wuciou (烏坵), Green Island (綠島) or Orchid Island (Lanyu, 蘭嶼) as part of the PRC. The act includes US$831.5 billion in
RSS