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US wary of warmer Taiwan-China ties

Some US officials fear that under Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) presidency, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) might swing far enough toward China that it could affect US interests in Taiwan and damage US interests in the region, a new congressional report indicates.

This, despite the fact that Ma has said he will place a high priority on repairing strained Taiwan-US ties that accompanied President Chen Shui-bian’s ( 陳水扁) last few years in the presidency, the report, an internal memo to congressmen from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) says.

The report, dated Wednesday, analyzes last month’s presidential election and Ma’s landslide victory and its likely impact on Taiwan’s domestic situation and relations with Washington and Beijing.

Based on conversations with US officials while the author, Kerry Dumbaugh, was in Taiwan to observe the election and other sources, the report says: “Some observers in the past have expressed concern that the United States may have underestimated the importance of the sea change in KMT thinking that arose from the visits to the PRC by senior KMT officials beginning in 2005.”

That alludes to visits to Beijing by former KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and his ally, People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), for discussions with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤 ) and other Chinese leaders on potential cross-strait ties that were intended, some charged, with undermining Chen’s presidency.

“Those visits, according to this view, may have given pro-China interests in the KMT a new, alternate vision for Taiwan’s future,” the report said. “If this concern is founded, one consequence could be the growing inurement of the KMT to US pressure or interests.”

For instance, “Taiwan could resist US pressure that it increase military spending on the grounds that such expenditures are too high, too confrontational and may be unnecessary in light of potential improvements in cross-strait interactions. Some worry then that the KMT, driven in large part by economic imperatives and pressures from the Taiwan business community, could reach an accommodation with Beijing that ultimately may damage US regional interests,” the report said.

The CRS is the congressional arm intended to keep lawmakers abreast of issues they must deal with, and congressional members rely on it heavily to form their views on legislation, especially among members unfamiliar with a topic, such as Taiwan and cross-strait issues.

Despite any concerns by some US observers, the report said that “the continued success in 2008 of Taiwan’s democratic development is a welcome validation of US goals and values. It also further emphasizes the unique and delicate challenge for US policy that Taiwan poses.”

It cited strong US and Taiwan trade and defense commitments, plus Taiwan’s vibrant free democracy, set off against China’s sovereignty claims and Washington’s official non-support for Taiwan’s independence.

“Under the new KMT government, then, the United States will be faced with challenges familiar from past years, including decisions on new arms sales; how to accommodate requests for visits to the United States by Ma and other senior Taiwan officials; the level of US relations with the Ma government; whether to pursue closer economic ties; and what role, if any, Washington should play in cross-strait relations,” the CRS concluded.

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