A confidential British military assessment examines the possibility of drastically cutting troop strength in Iraq by the end of next year, to 3,000 from about 8,500 now, in a memo leaked to the newspaper the Mail on Sunday. The memo also raises the possibility of a sharp drop in the number of troops the US and other allies have in Iraq by the middle of next year.
John Reid, the UK defense minister, confirmed the document's authenticity on Sunday but said it was one of a number of papers setting out scenarios for a transfer of security responsibilities to Iraqi forces. Pentagon officials and Reid stressed that no final decision on troop levels or timetables for withdrawal had been reached.
The document, titled "Options for Future UK Force Posture in Iraq", lays out a potential "halving" of costs of about US$1.8 billion a year for Britain in such troop cuts. It also refers to "strong US military desire" to hand over control to Iraqi forces in 14 out of 18 provinces. However, the paper said, while politicians favored a "relatively bold reduction," US commanders in Iraq were urging caution.
On Sunday, several Pentagon officials said the British memo, which appears to have been written at least a month ago, was accurate in describing the desire among US officials to reduce force levels next year -- if security conditions and the performance of Iraqi security forces improve.
Despite recent pressure from Congress to discuss possible force reductions, US officials have been reluctant to discuss timelines for withdrawals, arguing that to do so would encourage Iraqi insurgents.
"I wouldn't want to predict when the conditions could be such that US forces would be able to be there in smaller numbers," said Bryan Whitman, a senior Pentagon spokesman.
He said that the British memo's assertion that "emerging US plans" envision steep troop reductions next year "is not inconsistent with the goal." But he added, "With respect to timelines, I wouldn't want to speculate."
The US currently has about 140,000 troops in Iraq, according to the Pentagon. The British memo discusses a possible reduction in overall troop strength, including the US and its allies, from 176,000 to 66,000 next year.
Top US commanders have said in recent weeks that the training of Iraqi units is progressing. But despite predictions from administration officials that Iraq forces would begin taking the lead against the insurgency, Major General William Webster Jr., who commands US forces in and around Baghdad, told reporters at a Pentagon briefing on Friday that it would probably take until next spring before Iraqi security forces would be able to operate completely on their own.
Reid issued a statement on Sunday saying that Britain would keep its troops in Iraq, where they are concentrated around the southern port of Basra, "for as long as is needed."
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