Though the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) plans to align with the DPP after the year-end elections, observers surveying the political landscape say the new group may wind up doing more harm than good.
A DPP election strategist, who spoke to the Taipei Times yesterday on the condition of anonymity, said the new group's 39 legislative candidates may result in a loss of seats for both the KMT and the DPP.
"It's quite obvious now that some of the TSU candidates ... may steal votes from the DPP candidates," the campaign strategist said.
"So the worst-case scenario is a `lose-lose' situation, meaning the [TSU candidates] drag down along with them those DPP candidates who are on the brink of getting elected."
The goal of the TSU is to win 35 seats in the legislature. Should the DPP win 85 seats, that would give the two parties control of the 225-member lawmaking body.
Because the TSU candidates enjoy neither the advantages of incumbency nor high popularity ratings, they will have to rely on grass-roots support to get elected, the strategist said.
In particular, the strategist said, the TSU's Hsiao Kuan-yu (
But while the TSU has set its sights on winning at least 35 seats, DPP Chairman Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) is less optimistic.
In an interview with the Liberty Times on Saturday, Hsieh said that although he had high hopes for cooperation between the TSU and DPP after the elections, he doesn't expect the new party will win any more than 10 seats.
Still, other analysts note that the TSU remains more of a worry for the KMT than it does the DPP.
Many pro-Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) legislators are sticking with the KMT -- unwilling to give up the party's abundant cash resources -- and are seeking re-election as KMT members. These pro-Lee members will also be competing with TSU candidates for the pro-Taiwan vote.
According to KMT legislator Apollo Chen (
"They are now in an awkward position, as they face pressure from within the KMT -- due to their close relations with Lee -- and fierce competition from outside the party," Chen said.
"The new party's candidates may be incapable of getting elected, but they're also capable of costing their competitors the race," the lawmaker added.
Chen forecast that the TSU's Chen Chien-min (
The TSU's impact on the People First Party and New Party is said to be negligible, though not everyone agrees.
Liu I-de (劉一德), the DPP's former director of organizational development, said the new party has also encroached upon the territory of the PFP.
"The TSU has successfully intercepted quite a few hopeful candidates who might have sought the PFP's nomination if the TSU had not been founded," Liu said.
Liu said that if the PFP fails to field winning candidates, the party of James Soong (
And while much of the attention recently has been focused on the TSU's creation, analysts note that the party remains untested.
The DPP strategist said that because the TSU's main goal is to "win elections," it lacks resources and other ways to ensure that members don't step out of line.
If conflict develops from within the party, it may not be equipped to resolve the dispute, hurting the group's legislative ambitions before they have a chance to be realized.
LONG FLIGHT: The jets would be flown by US pilots, with Taiwanese copilots in the two-seat F-16D variant to help familiarize them with the aircraft, the source said The US is expected to fly 10 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 70/72 jets to Taiwan over the coming months to fulfill a long-awaited order of 66 aircraft, a defense official said yesterday. Word that the first batch of the jets would be delivered soon was welcome news to Taiwan, which has become concerned about delays in the delivery of US arms amid rising military tensions with China. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said the initial tranche of the nation’s F-16s are rolling off assembly lines in the US and would be flown under their own power to Taiwan by way
‘OF COURSE A COUNTRY’: The president outlined that Taiwan has all the necessary features of a nation, including citizens, land, government and sovereignty President William Lai (賴清德) discussed the meaning of “nation” during a speech in New Taipei City last night, emphasizing that Taiwan is a country as he condemned China’s misinterpretation of UN Resolution 2758. The speech was the first in a series of 10 that Lai is scheduled to give across Taiwan. It is the responsibility of Taiwanese citizens to stand united to defend their national sovereignty, democracy, liberty, way of life and the future of the next generation, Lai said. This is the most important legacy the people of this era could pass on to future generations, he said. Lai went on to discuss
MISSION: The Indo-Pacific region is ‘the priority theater,’ where the task of deterrence extends across the entire region, including Taiwan, the US Pacific Fleet commander said The US Navy’s “mission of deterrence” in the Indo-Pacific theater applies to Taiwan, Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Stephen Koehler told the South China Sea Conference on Tuesday. The conference, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), is an international platform for senior officials and experts from countries with security interests in the region. “The Pacific Fleet’s mission is to deter aggression across the Western Pacific, together with our allies and partners, and to prevail in combat if necessary, Koehler said in the event’s keynote speech. “That mission of deterrence applies regionwide — including the South China Sea and Taiwan,” he
UNPRECEDENTED: In addition to the approved recall motions, cases such as Ma Wen-chun’s in Nantou are still under review, while others lack enough signatures The Central Election Commission (CEC) announced yesterday that a recall vote would take place on July 26, after it approved the first batch of recall motions targeting 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and Hsinchu Mayor Ann Kao (高虹安). Taiwan is in the midst of an unprecedented wave of mass recall campaigns, following a civil society push that echoed a call made by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) in January to initiate signature drives aimed at unseating KMT legislators. Under the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act (公職人員選舉罷免法), Taiwanese can initiate a recall of district-elected lawmakers by collecting