Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Friday last week visited Macau for the 20th anniversary of its handover from Portugal to China. During the visit he praised Macau as an exemplar of the success of the “one country, two systems” model.
On Dec. 13, Reuters published a report saying that Xi was to announce measures designed to turn Macau, which has relied thus far on gambling and gaming tourism, into a financial hub. The report had analysts suggesting that Xi was planning to punish Hong Kong for its “transgressions.”
Macau has long wanted to diversify its economy and Hong Kong’s disruptive, months-long pro-democracy protests seem like the perfect opportunity for Macau to fast-track this process.
In any event, Xi’s speech on his arrival in Macau was purely political; he kept clear of economic announcements. He praised Macau’s relationship with Beijing, giving four reasons for its success.
First, for its conviction that the model is the optimum system for maintaining Macau’s long-term stability. Second, for trusting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the central government in Beijing, and faithfully following their directives. Third, for resisting interference from foreign powers and their alleged attempts to challenge China’s territorial integrity. Fourth, for having a strong sense of patriotism, identification with and pride in the motherland.
As Macau has been such a success in this regard, why did Xi devote so much of his speech to these reasons? The answer is that it was directed at Hong Kongers.
Xi and the CCP want a citizenry that blindly puts its faith in the state so that the state can guide it forward to a shared and meticulously planned destiny. The most charitable metaphor is that of an overbearing, controlling parent.
Xi’s gambit here is no mistake, he knows perfectly well what the situation is: demonstrate that the “one country, two systems” model can succeed. However, to say that Macau proves it works is as persuasive as saying that Hong Kong proves the opposite.
Hong Kong has a population of 7.4 million, compared with Macau’s 623,000, half of whom emigrated from China following the handover. This alone makes it clear that Xi’s third point, about resisting foreign interference, was meant not for Macau, but for Hong Kong.
More importantly, decades of rapid economic growth in Hong Kong have given rise to a vibrant civil society and an established middle class composed of lawyers, doctors, teachers, accountants, company executives, financiers, information technology professionals, social workers, editors and journalists raised in an environment with at least the expectation of democracy and the rule of law.
Hong Kongers are used to thinking for themselves, rather than surrendering their decisionmaking and future to a totalitarian state.
The closest similarity between the two societies is severe income disparity. Interestingly, Xi made a point of calling on the Macanese government to address social issues and improve housing.
The success of “one country, two systems” in Macau is largely irrelevant to Hong Kong. In terms of expectations, freedoms, history, complexity of civil society and identification with China, Hong Kong is much closer to Taiwan.
The vast majority of Taiwanese identify as Taiwanese, not Chinese, just as a poll of 1,000 people in Hong Kong found that only 10.8 percent of respondents identified as Chinese, with 53 percent considering themselves Hong Kongers.
Xi was correct in saying that identification with, and pride in, China was crucial to the success of “one country, two systems” in Macau. He now needs to follow that thought to its logical conclusion: It is also one crucial reason the model has failed in Hong Kong and does not stand a chance of success in Taiwan.
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