On Oct. 15, Penghu County is to hold its second referendum on whether to allow casinos to be established in the county. Pro-casino groups would have us believe that if casino resorts are approved, the Penghu County Government will receive NT$4 billion (US$127 million) in taxes each year from a taxable income of NT$57.1 billion, which would be taxed at 7 percent.
Think about that NT$57.1 billion. If every casino and casino resort was open 365 days a year, that means an income of NT$156 million every day.
If we assume that every tourist had a fat wallet and was willing to gamble away NT$10,000 as soon as they entered a casino, that would still require that at least 15,655 tourists come to Penghu per day to gamble at a casino.
The biggest passenger aircraft currently flying into Penghu County can probably take about 120 passengers. These gambling tourists alone, then, would need 130 fully booked aircraft to fly into Penghu every day, and that does not include families returning home or other tourists.
If a standard tour bus takes 40 passengers, those 15,655 tourists would need 391 tour buses. Some people might want to stay more than one day, so if half of all those people were to go to a casino, that would mean that there would be at least 195 tour buses on the road at any given time.
It is 6.7km between Magong Airport and Magong City. If 195 tour buses with a safety distance of 40m between them were lined up in a long row, that would require 7.8km of road.
With a long line of buses all the way from the airport to the city there would be buses everywhere. Do they want to completely paralyze Penghu?
Even someone thinking with their knee would realize that these numbers are unrealistic. Despite that, this is currently the biggest and best argument that pro-casino groups have.
They are now busy holding explanatory meetings all over the place, and at these meetings, they post signs with the most fantastic numbers written on them, saying that with this NT$4 billion, and another NT$4 billion that the county government will also deduct with another 7 percent casino tax, there will be NT$8 billion per year for the people of Penghu County.
These numbers would mean a good life for generations of Penghu residents.
One can only wonder if these pie in the sky promotions before anything has actually been implemented do not sound familiar to most people.
There are many other examples, such as the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in New Taipei City’s Gongliao District (貢寮), the nation’s sixth naphtha cracker in Yunlin County’s Mailiao Township (麥寮) and other projects.
Ghost Month is behind us, and we should make sure that we also leave this kind of irresponsible “development ghost story” behind us.
Everyone agrees that the people of Penghu County should be able to have a good life, but that has to be achieved by themselves, through hard work, and not by listening to unrealistic fairy tales that offer empty, hollow dreams.
Cheng Tung-liao is an associate professor at National Chengchi University.
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