The government’s recent upward revision of its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.98 percent from its 2.82 percent February estimate is mainly due to expectations of stronger private consumption and investment growth, although the possibility of substantial wage growth remains low.
Other data released over the past two weeks also suggest that the nation’s economy is resilient and has gradually recovered momentum in tune with the global recovery. For example last month, the industrial production index climbed to a nine-month high of 104.34; export orders grew for the third consecutive month to US$38.87 billion and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in nearly six years — to 3.91 percent.
However, there are some issues behind what appears to be positive data that deserve attention.
For instance, data indicate that average monthly wages, including bonuses and compensation, rose 5.54 percent year-on-year to a new high of NT$57,582 in the first quarter of this year. However it is clear that much of the increase was due to annual bonuses received ahead of the Lunar New Year. Also, if adjusted for inflation, the figure in real terms would be NT$55,872, which is even lower than it was in 1998.
Two reasons for the stagnation in salaries are low starting wages and that employers have not given raises for a long time. Last week, the Ministry of Labor said it is optimistic that the average starting salary for first-time jobseekers will be more than NT$26,000 a month this year, higher than the NT$25,175 offered last year, thanks to the recovering economy.
The government may think it has done a good job of deflecting the criticism that most graduates are still only offered NT$22,000 a month, but why should one feel good about this number when it is actually less than first-time employees were offered 14 years ago?
There is always a kind of statistical fallacy when we try to use changes in average wages to interpret an individual group’s income. The average figure for monthly salaries does not reflect the truth of the matter. The income gap between the rich and the poor has become increasingly wide, and the number of people earning less than the average, or living below the nation’s poverty-line is actually rising.
Certainly, there is growing anxiety among the public that the rich will keep getting richer and the poor poorer, while the middle class will be stretched further.
If the government really wants the public to feel better off, it should make those with below-average incomes feel their lives are improving and prevent the middle class from spiraling down into poverty.
What we can see from the government’s estimates is that those with a low-income and mid-to-low-income totaled about 656,223 people in June last year and the number may increase to about 700,000 this year. However, there are no official statistics showing wage improvements in low-income groups, revealing that the government might be refusing to acknowledge the reality of the economic situation.
Officials in President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration like to say that more engagement with China helps keep the peace across the Taiwan Strait and boosts the economy. However, apart from a small number of wealthy people and big corporations that are feeling the benefits, where is the real recovery in the economy? Why is the middle class feeling squeezed and worried that it may be forced to join the mid-to-low income category.
One reason for this is that fewer jobs are being created in Taiwan, while another reason is that higher housing prices and mortgage burdens have made people less inclined to spend their money on other things. GDP growth might be building up steam, but most Taiwanese are not benefitting from it — and that is what the economic truth tells us.
The bird flu outbreak at US dairy farms keeps finding alarming new ways to surprise scientists. Last week, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed that H5N1 is spreading not just from birds to herds, but among cows. Meanwhile, media reports say that an unknown number of cows are asymptomatic. Although the risk to humans is still low, it is clear that far more work needs to be done to get a handle on the reach of the virus and how it is being transmitted. That would require the USDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to get
For the incoming Administration of President-elect William Lai (賴清德), successfully deterring a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) attack or invasion of democratic Taiwan over his four-year term would be a clear victory. But it could also be a curse, because during those four years the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will grow far stronger. As such, increased vigilance in Washington and Taipei will be needed to ensure that already multiplying CCP threat trends don’t overwhelm Taiwan, the United States, and their democratic allies. One CCP attempt to overwhelm was announced on April 19, 2024, namely that the PLA had erred in combining major missions
On April 11, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech at a joint meeting of the US Congress in Washington, in which he said that “China’s current external stance and military actions present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge … to the peace and stability of the international community.” Kishida emphasized Japan’s role as “the US’ closest ally.” “The international order that the US worked for generations to build is facing new challenges,” Kishida said. “I understand it is a heavy burden to carry such hopes on your shoulders,” he said. “Japan is already standing shoulder to shoulder
Former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) used to push for reforms to protect Taiwan by adopting the “three noes” policy as well as “Taiwanization.” Later, then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) wished to save the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) by pushing for the party’s “localization,” hoping to compete with homegrown political parties as a pro-Taiwan KMT. However, the present-day members of the KMT do not know what they are talking about, and do not heed the two former presidents’ words, so the party has suffered a third consecutive defeat in the January presidential election. Soon after gaining power with the help of the KMT’s