In China and Taiwan the major political parties — the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — on Monday all celebrated the 100th anniversary of the Wuchang Uprising that sparked the Xinhai Revolution. Each of these parties approached the celebrations with different agendas. And, as this was the centenary, the celebrations were particularly politically charged.
The KMT and CCP were both keen to claim that they were the true successors to Sun Yat-sen’s (孫逸仙) legacy. China emphasized it was implementing Sun’s wishes, quoting him as saying unification was the hope of all Chinese people. There was not one mention of the Republic of China (ROC) during the entire celebration there.
In Taiwan the KMT emphasized its own claim to China, with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) saying Sun’s ideals were being carried out here. “The Republic of China,” he said, “is our nation, and Taiwan is our home.”
These two parties’ vying with each other — with claims of being the true heirs of the Xinhai Revolution and to the legitimate right to rule China — highlights that both are, originally at least, foreign powers, further alienating the Taiwanese public. The KMT is a government in exile, having fled in defeat to Taiwan. The greatest asset it has is the development of democracy, human rights and economic and technological success that this exiled regime has overseen in Taiwan. The fact that it was originally a foreign power doesn’t really come into it, as it has since gained democratic legitimacy. Now it can hold its head up high in the world. To compete with Beijing for the right to rule China is not only wildly unrealistic, it is also unnecessary.
The KMT had extended an invitation to DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to attend the main Double Ten National Day ceremony. It was a ruse, because for Tsai to attend would be to play along with the furnishings of the ROC as the name of the country, the ROC national flag and the ROC national anthem, but to not attend would be seen as unpatriotic. Tsai was shrewd, though. Just two days before the ceremony, she said “the ROC is Taiwan and Taiwan is the ROC,” and then she attended a flag-raising ceremony on Monday in Greater Tainan, singing a version of the ROC national anthem in which the words “the Three Principles of the People, on which our party is founded” were omitted. In so doing, she avoided having the DPP placed at a disadvantage and promoted her idea of the “Taiwan consensus.”
While the KMT was in power the first time, the pan-green camp boycotted the national day ceremony. For the eight years former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) was in office, no one from the pan-blue camp’s old guard or leadership attended the annual Jan. 1 dawn flag-raising ceremony at the Presidential Office, as to do so would have been to endorse Chen. Now things have come full circle.
The KMT and DPP have radically divergent politics. In their own interests, the opposition party equates the current administration with the country itself and boycotts any event symbolic of the country. Taiwan is the ROC, something the Taiwanese public has been aware of for some time. All of a sudden, the KMT is attempting to make a distinction between Taiwan and the ROC, while accommodating Beijing over the issue of the so-called “1992 consensus,” and the public is at a loss as to why. If we cannot find some kind of consensus in this country on this issue, we will continue to repeat this same farce every Double Ten National Day.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) sits down with US President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday next week, Xi is unlikely to demand a dramatic public betrayal of Taiwan. He does not need to. Beijing’s preferred victory is smaller, quieter and in some ways far more dangerous: a subtle shift in American wording that appears technical, but carries major strategic meaning. The ask is simple: replace the longstanding US formulation that Washington “does not support Taiwan independence” with a harder one — that Washington “opposes” Taiwan independence. One word changes; a deterrence structure built over decades begins to shift.
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