There is a gathering crisis in the Taiwan Strait. This is the message of a long-time, careful observer of cross-strait relations and its relevance to US security.
The book America’s Security and Taiwan’s Freedom by Li Thian-hok (李天福) — a compilation of speeches, op-eds and journal articles, many of which have been published in distinguished journals — is both a labor of love and a cry of warning on the part of the author.
It is fitting that the author, a distinguished son of Taiwan who also goes by Jay T. Loo, is based in Philadelphia, the birthplace of the US Constitution and home to the famed Liberty Bell.
Indeed, the book begins with an address at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Taiwan Relations Act.
Among those in the audience were Taiwanese and Taiwanese-Americans who were about to begin a 222km trek to Capitol Hill to commemorate the anniversary and to call Washington’s attention to the looming crisis in the Strait.
This crisis, Li says, seems to have escaped the attention of much of Washington’s policymaking elite. Several events that occurred subsequent to the publication of the volume underscore his point.
Articles have appeared in publications read by many academics and policymakers advocating that the US reduce its support for Taiwan to improve its relations with China.
One well-regarded military analyst has even said that if China were to attack Taiwan, the US should hold back, observe the progress of the war and take its time in deciding whether to intervene.
The US is burdened by huge debts and a sluggish economy, with Beijing holding a substantial portion of those debts.
It is also embroiled in a financially draining and protracted war against terrorism.
Even the death of the iconic terrorist leader Osama bin Laden does not appear to have diminished the threat from Islamic militants.
Some commentaries have said the US would be unable to resolve any major international problem without China’s cooperation and reason that acceding to Beijing’s oft-repeated demand for unification would incline the Chinese leadership toward working with Washington to solve these problems.
Also worrisome are developments in Taiwan.
As the governing party, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has pursued a policy of incremental capitulationism to China.
It has reduced both the size and the budget of the military, deepened the dependence of Taiwan’s economy on China’s through such arrangements as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), allowed Chinese investment in Taiwan’s real-estate market and encouraged tourism from China.
Some of the visitors may not be what they seem — the Taiwanese military and intelligence services have suffered from embarrassing breaches of security.
Although the KMT government defends these appeasement measures by saying they will reduce the threat to Taiwan and enhance the country’s international living space, this has not been the case.
China pressured the WHO to refer to Taiwan as a “province of China,” with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) failing to deal with the issue until the matter became public knowledge.
To calm a firestorm of criticism, he made a stern speech about safeguarding the country’s sovereignty — but, meanwhile, former KMT chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄), visiting Beijing, apparently said nothing about the matter in his conversation with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤).
Taiwan’s hard-won democratic freedoms have been constrained under Chinese pressure, as indicated by the downgrading of the nation’s status by international rating agencies such as Freedom House and Reporters Without Borders.
Moreover, even as Ma has progressively reduced the size and capabilities of the Taiwanese military, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has continued to receive double-digit increases each year, much of which goes to enhancing its ability to invade Taiwan.
There has been no reduction in the 1,500 short-range missiles pointed at Taiwan.
It is, as Li points out, idle to say that the possibility of China invading Taiwan has been reduced by the Ma administration’s policies when the real reason for the reduction in tension is that they are slowly eroding the country’s sovereignty — essentially giving Taiwan to China in the guise of creating better cross-strait ties.
This might be acceptable were it to conform to the wishes of the population, but opinion survey after opinion survey indicates that this is not the case.
According to an April poll, 69.6 percent of respondents were opposed to the eventual unification of Taiwan and China, while only 15.7 percent favored it; 49.3 percent supported the ultimate independence of Taiwan with 34.7 demurring.
The apparent erosion of Washington’s support for the Taiwan Relations Act is dangerous not only to Taiwan, but to the US as well, Li says.
Taiwan lies astride important sea lanes that are critical to international commerce and of special importance to US allies such as Japan.
Were Taiwan’s territorial waters to become part of China’s, they would come uncomfortably close to Japan’s home islands.
If the US abandons its support for Taiwan, its allies will conclude that Washington would not protect them either, and would seek to ensure their security in other ways — such as an arms buildup or closer relationships with Beijing.
Li cites late US representative Gerald Solomon’s words that a nation that does not support its allies will have no allies.
In this sense, Taiwan’s security is ultimately the US’ security as well.
Make no mistake, Li says, China does not intend to stop with absorbing Taiwan: He cites former head of the US Pacific Command Admiral Keating’s testimony that, during a conversation with PLA officers, they repeatedly brought up the idea of US and China co-managing the Pacific Ocean with Hawaii as the line of demarcation.
Note that this would limit the US to areas already part of its territory, whereas China’s sphere would be increased by tens of thousands of kilometers.
Li urges the million-strong Taiwanese community in the US to explain Taiwan’s domestic politics and Chinese statecraft to their policymakers so they may choose courses of action that would truly serve the US’ interest in bolstering the young democracies in Asia, while at the same time ensuring the security of the US homeland.
June Teufel Dreyer is a political science professor at the University of Miami, Florida.
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
The Legislative Yuan passed an amendment on Friday last week to add four national holidays and make Workers’ Day a national holiday for all sectors — a move referred to as “four plus one.” The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who used their combined legislative majority to push the bill through its third reading, claim the holidays were chosen based on their inherent significance and social relevance. However, in passing the amendment, they have stuck to the traditional mindset of taking a holiday just for the sake of it, failing to make good use of
RSS