The US recently announced an arms sales package including five items requested by Taiwan but excluding advanced F-16C/D fighter planes and diesel-electric submarines. Academics and think tanks in Taiwan and abroad perceived as early as August that US Navy policymakers planned to change their policy on the submarine sale. On Dec. 15, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) publicly stated that the US, having assessed the situation and to avoid the massive cost of reopening the production line, was likely to suggest that Taiwan build smaller coastal submarines not equipped with air-independent propulsion.
On Jan. 4, Defense News said the US might agree to conduct a first-stage feasibility assessment for providing diesel-electric submarines. Based on this, some concluded that Washington was likely to approve sale of diesel-electric subs in the package, because that would be a compromise based on the US’ external environment and interests.
It would reduce the sensitivity of the issue so as not to “irritate” China. It could keep its promise to Taiwan. Lastly, it would avoid protest from civic groups that would be provoked by the sale of nuclear-powered submarines.
Many believe the package will have little impact on Sino-US or cross-strait relations, since it is limited to defensive weapons or replacing existing systems and will not significantly improve Taiwan’s deterrence capability. Mei Fu-hsing (梅復興), director of the US-based Taiwan Strait Security Research and Analysis Center, commented bluntly that the five-item package is no more than a “stock clearance sale” that was already approved by former US president George W. Bush.
As for F-16C/D fighter jets and diesel-electric submarines, Taipei’s representative to Washington Jason Yuan (袁健生) said the US has not really excluded the prospect and that a decision would be made after completion of an evaluation report on Taiwan’s and China’s relative military strengths. In other words, the US is probably testing the waters before Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) visit in April and intends to use the issue as a bargaining chip for follow-up negotiations.
Few items among Taiwan’s past arms purchases had great deterrent effect. As Brian Kennedy, president of the Claremont Institute, said in an opinion piece in the Jan. 10 issue of the Wall Street Journal, US arms sales to Taiwan are inadequate and if the US really wants to help Taiwan it should sell it more advanced weapons.
Tamkang University professor Chen I-hsin (陳一新), meanwhile, said that China has taken a series of steps in protest at US arms sales to Taiwan and the main aim of these measures has been to deter the US from selling Taiwan diesel-electric submarines, since diesel-electric submarines pose a bigger threat to China than F-16C/D fighters.
For Taiwan, the defense value of the submarines would lie in their ability to link up with and complement US forces by patrolling coastal waters within the first Pacific island chain in which the presence of US vessels would be too sensitive. Also, following September’s US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference in Charlottesville, Virginia, the US side let it be known that it was Taiwan’s government that wanted to block the diesel-electric submarine deal. In view of the position taken on this issue by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and the KMT when it was in opposition, it can be seen that the government’s position is far from clear-cut.
It is unwise to keep delaying such a key item. Whether the government wants to go through with the deal or not, it should set out a clear plan and give the public a proper explanation.
Wang Jyh-perng is an associate research fellow at the Association for Managing Defense and Strategies.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG AND JULIAN CLEGG
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