The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lost all three legislative by-elections on Saturday. Although President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said he feels “great” about his four-pronged strategy for dealing with adversity — deal with problems calmly, learn from mistakes, pursue reforms and make progress — he may have a hard time swallowing this latest bad news. Although he launched party reforms after the KMT did poorly in local elections last month, this latest blow casts doubt on whether Ma, as KMT chairman, understands what the problem is.
The KMT was the obvious underdog on Saturday. Each of the by-elections was necessitated by its own legislators and voters had cause to be displeased. In Taichung and Taoyuan counties, two KMT legislators had lost their seats because of vote buying. The Taitung County by-election had to be held because KMT legislator Justin Huang (黃健庭) had resigned to run for Taitung county commissioner in last month’s election.
That decision was dogged by claims, however, that Huang and the KMT candidate who ran for his seat — and who was Huang’s predecessor as county commissioner — Kuang Li-chen (鄺麗貞) had struck a deal to switch jobs. Given the scandal surrounding Kuang’s official trips abroad and her implication in corruption proceedings against her husband Wu Chun-li (吳俊立), all three defeats were a warning from voters to the KMT.
The public’s displeasure was compounded by the government’s handling of the US beef issue, the (A)H1N1 vaccine and the proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China.
Although KMT legislators opposed the government over the beef protocol, neither the Presidential Office nor the Cabinet reviewed its approach. This has put off voters, KMT members and the US alike. Such behavior can easily spark a backlash among swing voters or even cause dedicated KMT supporters to abstain from voting.
The KMT has not been sincere about reform. The party’s promises concerning its controversial assets have yet to materialize. Local factions still have too much sway in the nomination of candidates. Such reform is unlikely to mobilize party members and convince voters.
Compared with the last legislative polls, the three KMT candidates lost between 10,000 and 30,000 votes each this weekend. The DPP candidates not only retained their support base, but votes for Lai Kun-cheng (賴坤成) in Taitung County and Chien Chao-tung (簡肇棟) in Taichung County rose slightly. The KMT lost base support because of low turnout.
With three new legislators, the DPP finally has enough seats to propose to amend the Constitution or impeach the president. As the KMT retains a strong majority, however, the significance of this victory is symbolic. The DPP seems to have emerged from the shadow of former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and his administration’s poor performance.
Ma, meanwhile, is faced with a challenge. There are rumblings of dissent from within his party and faith in his leadership is faltering in Beijing and internationally. Ma has to adjust how he runs his government, step up party reform and heed public opinion. If he doesn’t, he will be looking at a similar setback in the four legislative by-elections next month and the special municipality elections at the end of the year.
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