The ninth dialogue on Sino-US relations and regional security took place at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai on May 8 and May 9. The dialogue was co-sponsored by the Center for American Studies at Fudan, the CNA Corporation, the Institute for Defense Analyses and the Pacific Forum CSIS.
At the event, Tao Wenzhao (陶文昭) a senior fellow at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, spoke about several issues regarding cross-strait relations. While mentioning the significance of Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) presidency, particularly the subsequent cooling of tensions across the Taiwan Strait following Ma’s election, Tao also said that China could budge no further with concessions to Taiwan.
This unwillingness to grant further concessions to Taiwan, Tao said, stemmed from the antagonism between the pan-green and pan-blue camps in Taiwan. It seemed that, according to Tao, improving cross-strait relations hinges upon Ma’s ability to remain in power and provide China with continuing concessions and posturing. But in the eyes of Chinese leaders, Ma’s efforts could easily come to nought should the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the rest of the pan-green coalition make a comeback.
The pan-green’s potential comeback appears at least somewhat likely, given the recent economic woes Taiwan has faced. Add to that the slow response to Typhoon Morakot, and recent electoral developments and you have yourself the workings of a comeback for the opposition — at least in theory.
Whether the DPP and its allies can capitalize on such developments is a question that remains unanswered.
But missed in this mixture of political rhetoric and slamming of the “independence forces” in Taiwan is the tacit consent of all involved — including US participants — that the pan-green coalition is inherently a threat to peace across the Taiwan Strait. However, although in theory the pan-green’s political ideologies, at least at face value, clash with Beijing’s political aims, there is no evidence to support the claim that the pan-green coalition is inherently a threat to peace.
If anything, it is Beijing’s misperception of the pan-green coalition that fuels this sentiment.
During former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) administration, cross-strait relations were tense, but they were not violent. In fact, nothing at all similar to the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, which occurred during the administration of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), came close to happening during Chen’s time in office. Taiwan neither claimed independence nor rattled any sabers at its behemoth neighbor, although Beijing itself certainly upped the rhetoric in denouncing Chen and his government.
Meanwhile, former US president George W. Bush criticized Chen for his remarks. This gave the perception that the US, in order to preserve stability in the Taiwan Strait, would rather have a member of the pan-blue alliance, a group more willing to appease Beijing, at the helm of Taiwan’s government.
But this served Beijing’s purposes more than Washington’s. The “status quo” remained, despite Chen’s rhetoric, and Beijing got what it wanted: Washington’s tacit consent that Chen and the pan-green coalition were reckless, hell-bent on independence and not to be trusted with power. Moreover, Washington’s reaction implied that Taiwan’s status as a multi-party, democratic and self-governing nation was not useful in Washington’s scheme of things.
RSS