With its landslide victory in the legislative by-election in Yunlin County, as well as a looming Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) split in several cities and counties in the year-end local government elections, a reinvigorated Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has launched the slogan “fight division with unity.”
There is also renewed confidence that the DPP can regain national power.
It may be too early to cheer. The party may be able to win mayoral and county commissioner seats, but its risk of internal conflict prior to the 2012 presidential election is higher than in the KMT.
KMT local factions have a long history. In the past, the party controlled all resources and could attract local factions. The major task now is to integrate them into election campaigns.
This was not necessary during the Martial Law era, but it became necessary under former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝). Lee integrated the factions to stabilize the political situation in his fight against the KMT old guard.
The DPP’s local networks are weak, and most supporters are independent-minded. Despite its many factions, DPP supporters do not readily attach themselves to a specific faction. Anyone with a big personal following can absorb other factions, as exemplified by former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). He attracted a large following and controlled the factions. Even those who opposed him had to feign support.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrongly thinks that the KMT’s supporters are just as independent-minded. After winning the presidency with the support of more than 7 million voters, he believes he is capable of controlling local factions and is trying to reconstruct the political map through his massive voter base.
However, he doesn’t understand that his votes came from the factions. Perhaps he will change his mind if the KMT suffers losses in December.
One reason the DPP lost its grip on power was that its image of incorruptibility collapsed. Another reason was the lack of a new spiritual leader who could attract voters and control the party’s factions.
This is a result of structural changes following the party’s accession to power in 2000. In the past, DPP supporters voted independently in primaries, but after 2000 they voted as groups that attacked their opponents. As a result, winners of primaries were unable to unite the voter base to become “spiritual leaders.”
The KMT’s faction struggles are a result of an inability to handle vested interests. If party leaders were to attend to this problem and redistribute benefits, they would have a chance of resolving the problem.
The pan-green camp’s conflicts are also a struggle over benefits, but groups always use “loving Taiwan” as an excuse and label opponents as “not loving Taiwan.” This kind of struggle is much more difficult to resolve. If the KMT’s local factions are villains, then the DPP’s political groups are hypocrites.
Each KMT faction has its own supporters. If they work together, they gain great strength, but if they don’t, they weaken, so there is much room for cooperation. But the DPP’s groups do not have their own supporters as everyone shares the same base, which means they can only enjoy full support by defeating their opponents, leaving little room for reconciliation. Thus, in the 2012 presidential election, a split DPP could face a united KMT.
It wouldn’t be difficult for the DPP to win the presidency if it can rebuild its pre-2000 structure. Sadly, its nature changed over eight years in power. Until a new “spiritual leader” can emerge, the DPP will be far from regaining power.
Chen Mao-hsiung is a professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering at National Sun Yat-sen University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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