Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's (溫家寶) speech to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress last Thursday drew a lot of international media coverage. Wen said the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would hold consultations and strengthen cross-strait economic cooperation. While it might appear relations have taken a big step toward stability, a hidden threat was largely overlooked by the international and domestic media. The sticking point: Beijing's good will hinges on Taiwan's acceptance of the “one China” principle.
China’s national defense budget has grown by more than 10 percent annually for the past decade and will rise by at least 15 percent this year — and that's just according to the official figures. The size of the People's Liberation Army, with more than 3 million people in its land forces alone, means personnel costs are immense. However, China's stated goal this year is upgrading its naval and air forces. The Chinese navy is working to building its own aircraft carrier. As Chinese naval strength grows, it will expand throughout the South China Sea and into the Indian Ocean.
Taiwan is a vital link, so China keeps making economic overtures and expressing good will while continuing to make military preparations. China keeps increasing its military spending even though cross-strait tension is low. It is clear that the Taiwan issue is only a pretext for China to expand its military power.
These days, Taiwan appears to be almost the only country that cares about the shifting balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait, as the Taiwan question has dropped off the radar in international politics. This puts Taiwan in a precarious position.
China no longer sees the Taiwan issue as a problem since President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) took office. Nevertheless, it continues to deploy more missiles along its southeast coast, which now number about 1,500.
For his part Ma, apparently doesn't view all those missiles as a threat and naively discounts the possibility of hostile behavior by China. Taiwan's military budget has been cut and arms purchases have almost ceased. Ma and his defense minister are more concerned with how fast soldiers can run, whether they can swim or perform cardiopulmonary resuscitation. This complacency is the biggest threat to national security.
Since it views Taiwan as under control, China's next step must be to extend its power across the East and South China Seas. It will undoubtedly assert its claim over the Diaoyutai (釣魚台) islands more forcefully, without regard to the inclusion of those islands as a peripheral concern under US-Japan joint security agreements. China's recent contribution of warships to escort commercial ships off the coast of Somalia can be seen as a bid to extend its naval power beyond the South China Sea and provide its navy with an internationally sanctioned military exercise.
Today Taiwan and the international community are focusing on China's massive market and economic clout. China does indeed have an important role to play in dealing with the global financial crisis, and can help Taiwan and other countries to get through the slump. At the same time, however, Taiwan and other countries must be aware that China remains a huge threat to their way of life. If the Chinese tiger gets angry, who is going to tame it?
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