TAIWAN'S RECOGNITION OF Kosovo's independence made headline news in the newly independent state, the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times' sister newspaper) reported. However, China insists that Taiwan is not a sovereign state, and has no right to recognize Kosovo. Loud complaints from Beijing compelled a Kosovo Web site to remove Taiwan from the list of countries that had recognized its independence. As a sovereign state, when will Taiwan's international status and dignity be secured?
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) opposes Taiwanese independence because he promotes eventual unification with China. Faced with rising Taiwanese consciousness, Ma does not dare suggest unification directly. His anti-independence discourse is instead justified through Beijing's threat of military attack as well as opposition from the US and the international community. Taiwanese independence supporters are depicted as troublemakers for the international community. But is international politics really so simple? Is Taiwanese independence really just a form of trouble making?
Zbigniew Brzezinski, former US president Jimmy Carter's national security advisor, said in his latest book, The Second Chance, that the foreign policies of former US presidents George Bush and Bill Clinton and US President George W. Bush change with, rather than influence or lead, international developments. Furthermore, all three were or are frequently guilty of misjudging the situation and in the end rely mostly on chance to resolve issues.
Ukrainian independence is one such example. Bush senior underestimated the intensity of non-Russian nationalism, believing that a strong Soviet identity would prevent non-Russian nationalities within the Soviet Union's borders from seeking independence.
During a visit to the Ukraine in August 1991, he indicated in a speech that the US would not support Ukrainian independence. While the US supported Ukraine in its pursuit of freedom, it did not support using ethnic hatred as a basis for those who promote suicidal nationalism, he said. He obviously misjudged the situation in opposing Ukrainian independence to maintain the Soviet regime. Four months after his visit, the Ukraine declared independence following a national referendum, delivering a firm slap in the face to the then-US leader.
Now, President Bush is treating the Taiwan Strait issue in a similar fashion. He also wishes to maintain the stability of the Chinese Communist Party regime, and understates the nationalistic desires of the Chinese. He believes that Beijing has firmly established a Chinese identity, that the Taiwanese public identifies with China and that nationalistic independence and nation building will bring instability to the region. His government has repeatedly declared its opposition to Taiwanese independence, and warns against its danger.
In reality, would Taiwan go the same way as the Ukraine? Ukrainian independence spurred a wave of independence among non-Russian ethnic groups. Would Taiwanese independence ignite the separatist desires in Tibet, Xinjiang, or maybe even Hong Kong?
Since Ukraine's independence, Taiwanese have learned that although the US and the Soviet Union cooperated in blocking Ukrainian independence, and the Ukraine also had unification supporters similar to Ma, the Ukrainians courageously escaped the Soviet Union's imperialist oppression through a national referendum and brought forth the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Would Taiwan's independence also bring about China's dissolution, or as Ma proposes, only cause China to attack Taiwan?
Allen Houng is a professor in the Institute of Neuroscience at National Yang Ming University.
TRANSLATED BY ANGELA HONG
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with