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Managing US response to UN bid

To prevent potential cross-strait tensions in the next couple of months, the administration of US President George W. Bush has initiated measures to prevent President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) moves toward de jure independence from crossing the "red line" established by Washington.

The US has reiterated its warning to Chen that Washington sees his push to hold a referendum on applying to join the UN under the name "Taiwan" as a move that unilaterally changes the cross-strait "status quo" and therefore violates US policy and Chen's commitments of not changing Taiwan's national title and not holding a referendum on independence.

To respond to US concerns, Chen has argued that the UN referendum does not involve changing the national title, nor is it a referendum on the issue of independence.

Washington also questioned the necessity of holding such a controversial referendum if most polls have shown an overwhelming support for Taiwan to join the UN.

Chen argued that there is an essential difference between results of polls and referendums, as polls are conducted to gather information, while referendums establish policy.

The difference between the US and Chen's positions has resulted in a clear political deadlock.

More rhetoric and political gestures are likely to emerge in the next couple of months, with the Bush administration taking measures to force Chen to make concessions on the referendum.

A clear example of the Bush administration's pressure was its attempt to downgrade Chen's transit stop in the US to one outside the contiguous 48 states and without an overnight stay.

China must have played a key role in terms of urging Washington to restrict Chen's movement. In addition to engaging in diplomatic and legal warfare to strengthen Chinese propaganda that "Taiwan is a part of People's republic of China," China is also expected to ask senior US officials to condemn the UN referendum as reckless and express US objections to Taiwan's bid to join other international organizations such as the World Health Organization.

The best scenario for Beijing would be for Bush to publicly criticize Chen's referendum as stoking cross-strait tensions when Bush meets with Chinese President Hu Jintou (胡錦濤) at the APEC Economic Leadership Summit next month.

Beijing would also like to unite with its allies in the UN at next month's UN General Assembly meetings in order to come up with a new resolution stipulating that Taiwan is part of China.

It is also possible that the US would postpone or cancel planned arms sales to Taipei until Chen backs down on the UN referendum bid.

But of course, the US is not China's plaything. Beijing knows that if Washington's warnings fail, it must employ military intimidation to deter Chen's ambitions.

It is very likely Hu will attempt to use the 17th plenary session of the Chinese People's Congress in October to send a clear message to the world that Beijing would resort to "non-peaceful means" under the so-called "Anti-Secession" Law to prvent Taiwan from moving toward de jure independence.

China is concerned that Chen will attempt to take advantage of the Olympics in Beijing next year to accelerate moves toward independence.

To counteract pressure from the hawkish People's Liberation Army, Chinese leaders are likely to show their military intentions toward Taiwan regardless of the Olympics -- or at least pretend to do so.

This would increase the pressure on the US as it attempts to manage cross-strait issues. In response, the Bush administration would likely point its finger at Chen and his government for abusing US assistance and the friendship between the US and Taiwan.

Beijing and Washington are likely to try very hard to separate Chen's aspirations from those of Taiwanese as a whole and blame Chen for caring only about his legacy and overlooking cross-strait stability.

Chen and his government should carefully consider how to deal with this complicated situation.

Therefore, Chen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership and most importantly, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), must formulate a coherent message emphasizing that the referendum in fact is a positive indication of the level of Taiwan's democratic progress.

Since the Chinese Nationalist Party has also supported a referendum on using "appropriate names" to return the UN, this united voice must be heard around the world.

One of the purposes of the referendum is to focus world attention on the fact that Beijing is the party that is constantly and unilaterally attempting to change the cross-strait "status quo."

The US' attempts to interfere in the referendum should be managed carefully and relations between the US and Taiwan should not be sacrificed in the course of the drive to attain membership in the UN.

There is room for adjusting the theme and wording of the referendum in order to rebuild the trust between Taipei and Washington.

Chen and his government can use this wiggle room as a bargaining chip to negotiate with their US counterparts.

Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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