In April, the US Council on Foreign Relations published a 117-page Independent Task Force report titled US-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course, which extols the merits of US-China engagement.
The 30 task force members are prominent academics from academia and think tanks, former government officials and business leaders. The report is purported to be a consensus of the mainstream US policy elite.
Before addressing the main topic of US-China relations, the report presents a comprehensive and well documented analysis of US goals in dealing with China, China's economic and social transformation since the opening up of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1978, China's approach to the world and China's military modernization. The report then discusses a comprehensive list of recommendations on how to steer the PRC towards the role of a responsible stakeholder in the international system.
In conclusion, the task force states that while China's future remains uncertain, US national power — military, political, economic and moral — can be sustained, "giving the United States ample time and means to evaluate and adjust policies towards China in the event that proves necessary."
While the findings, analyses and recommendations of the report appear generally sound, a number of academics wrote perceptive dissenting opinions which significantly enhance the completeness and balance of this report. The University of Pennsylvania's Professor Arthur Waldron, however, was the only dissenter who touched on the Taiwan issue and his views are summarized below.
The report does not address the illegitimacy and weakness of the Chinese regime and does not give sufficient weight to China's military buildup. The economic analysis is overly positive and misleading.
"Taiwan will continue to exist as an independent state and ... Washington, China, and the rest of the world should start thinking about how we will accommodate it," the report says.
If the [Chinese Communist] Party "attempts (as now) to hold on to absolute power at all costs, the danger of instability and conflict in China and the region will become serious," it adds.
The task force report gives the impression that the US government has recognized the PRC's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. Waldron refutes this interpretation by citing various documents including then-US president Ronald Reagan's April 1982 "Six Assurances" to Taipei, promising that the US would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
Aside from the dissenting views, the report makes statements and implicit assumptions which are debatable. The Task Force, for example, finds that "on balance, US trade relations with China benefit both the people of the United States as well as China."
No doubt the infusion of foreign direct investment and access to the US market have contributed to China's rapid economic development. Yet income disparities are growing and some 400 million Chinese still live on less than US$2 a day. China's GDP growth is based on massive exploitation of workers and farmers. Laborers work long hours at low wages under unsafe conditions. Some 160 million farmers have moved to cities in search of jobs. A typical rural family has the father working in construction in a remote city, the mother working in a factory in a coastal province, leaving a school age child with grandparents at home. If someone gets sick the family gets into heavy debt since the government provides no social safety net. In the US, while people enjoy the cheap Chinese goods, both the national debt and personal debt keep growing. Savings rate is very low and the twin trade deficit and budget deficit cast a dark shadow on the US economy.
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