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Editorial: Can the KMT square the circle?

As next year's presidential election approaches, the nation's two biggest political parties are faced with the difficult task of having to select tickets that would give them the greatest chance of winning the presidency.

The importance of the upcoming presidential election for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is without question.

For the DPP, winning this election will help salvage the party from the past year's slump, during which its top figures, including President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and his family, were slapped with a series of scandalous allegations.

As for the KMT, after losing the previous two presidential elections, it cannot wait to reclaim the presidency and enjoy the sweet taste of political victory.

Both parties have mechanisms for the primaries through which -- in theory at least -- the best candidates will be elected through a combination of ballots cast by party members and public opinion polls. While this process seems straightforward and in conformity with the fundamentals of democracy, it has some fatal flaws.

This explains why, before the primaries have even been held, both parties have decided to resort to negotiations among the contenders to decide who should be nominated. The biggest flaw in that approach is that the attendant party infighting could split them.

When it comes to the consequences of such splits, the KMT probably has the most painful experience -- notably the 2000 presidential election. The KMT's votes were divided between the party's nominated candidate -- Lien Chan (連戰) -- and a disgruntled James Soong (宋楚瑜), who decided to leave the party and run as an independent. This was a major reason why Chen was able to win.

Life, however, has its many ironies. In light of the standoff between former KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) for a presidential nomination, the KMT's greatest fear is that history will repeat itself. If Ma and Wang were to run on the same ticket, the KMT would have a fairly good chance of winning the election. The problem is deciding who should be nominated for the presidency and who should run as vice president.

Although Wang has more seniority than Ma in the party, Ma's popularity made it almost certain that he would be chosen to represent the party. However, the scales began to tip in Wang's favor after Ma was formally indicted on embezzlement charges.

While Ma's popularity remains high, it is not unlikely that he will be convicted on those charges, which could have serious repercussions for the KMT's image. Hence Wang's determination to run as presidential candidate and nothing else.

Under such extraordinary circumstances, Lien and Wu Po-hsiung (吳伯雄) have stepped in to solve the riddle. Many solutions have been proposed, including a Lien-Ma ticket, with Wang as chairman. How deliciously ironic it would be if Lien were to run as president for a third time.

Given his political stature, it is highly unlikely Lien would settle for anything less than the presidency. However, Ma's unwillingness to be Wang's sidekick probably also applies to Lien.

It seems that in the weeks ahead the KMT will need to accomplish no less than squaring the circle.
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