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Editorial: Who's to blame if Ma falls?

Speculation was rife in the media last week that Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) would be indicted before the Lunar New Year holiday on embezzlement charges related to his use of a special allowance during his tenure as Taipei mayor.

If Ma is indicted, expect to see the pan-blue camp lash out at the judiciary and government in equal measure.

But closer examination of events reveals that it is the KMT and the People First Party, its pan-blue ally, that will be to blame if their best hope of winning next March's presidential election finds himself in court and his long-standing reputation for integrity under a cloud.

After all, it is the irrational actions of the pan-blue camp's lawmakers that have brought Ma to the verge of electoral ruin, as their behavior since he assumed the KMT chairmanship in August 2005 has systematically eroded his long-held image of infallibility.

For more than a year Ma has been promoting his idea of a "reasonable arms purchase" in an attempt to break the legislative gridlock over the procurement of US arms, but his party caucus has either not been listening or just choosing to ignore him, meaning that the passage of any kind of arms deal is still a long way off. This has put Taiwan's relationship with the US -- something the KMT disingenuously says it values -- under increasing stress, damaging Ma domestically and causing him trouble during last March's US trip.

Then, last April, when Ma asked KMT legislators to support Hsieh Wen-ding's (謝文定) nomination for prosecutor-general, the party caucus openly rebelled against his very public advice, leaving him with egg on his face all over again.

Next, under pressure last fall from deep-blue elements within his own camp, Ma let himself be press-ganged into giving free rein to Shih Ming-teh's (施明德) absurd campaign to depose the president. What initially seemed like a guilt-free way of harming the president backfired as the National Day celebrations descended into farce, causing Ma's popularity to plummet.

Ma has also been unable to deliver on numerous promises to lead an opposition party that would work with the government to benefit all people. The KMT caucus has continued blocking legislation left, right and center, giving Ma the appearance of a party leader who has no control over his party.

And don't forget it was the pan-blue camp's ceaseless and frenzied attempts to harm the standing of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) that brought the issue of "special funds" into the spotlight in the first place.

If Ma is indicted, whether or not he is found innocent will be irrelevant, as images of him arriving at court will be enough to knock him off his pedestal, placing him on the same level as every other compromised politician.

The air of infallibility will be gone, along with -- to quote the KMT -- their best chance of "winning back" Taiwan.

Faced with a growing "Taiwan consciousness" and the localization efforts of Chen's administration, the KMT and pro-China lobby in their bid for relevance have behaved like a drowning man whose desperate struggles drown both himself and his rescuer.

The KMT, like any party, has internal divisions and there are many within its ranks that are hostile to Ma and his moderate, please everyone style.

But without Ma, does the party have any other candidates capable of securing enough votes for victory in next year's presidential election?

With talk of bringing back former chairman Lien Chan (連戰) for a third attempt, the answer appears to be no.

And now it is too late to turn back the clock.
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