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Why the DPP won in Kaohsiung

`It is likely that the Taiwan Solidarity Union and the People First Party will evaporate and the future political landscape will become purely a DPP-KMT divide.'

In an extremely tight race in Kaohsiung, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Chu (陳菊) won her mayoral bid over Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) mayoral candidate Huang Chun-ying (黃俊英) by a razor-thin margin of 1,114 votes.

The Central Election Commission (CEC) said that Chen garnered 379,417 votes, while Huang obtained 378,303.

As the final votes were still being counted, the vote difference between Chen and Huang was getting smaller and smaller. Nevertheless, Huang still lost to Chen and placed second.

But given the small margin of votes by which Chen won the election, Huang will probably demand a vote recount and today he could very well initiate such a lawsuit to nullify the elections.

Kaohsiung and most of the southern cities are traditional pan-green strongholds; therefore, the DPP technically would be expected to capture more than enough votes to seize control of the city.

But given the recent scandals plaguing the first family and the resulting mood among DPP members, the DPP had not been able to hold a strong lead until about a week prior to the elections.

When looking at the issues that influenced voters in the Kaohsiung election, the key factors that led to a DPP victory are two-fold:

First, clashes in downtown Kaohsiung -- where Chen Chun-sheng (陳春生), convener of a "depose Chen" campaign office in the city, held a gathering aimed at building momentum for the anti-presidential campaign -- served to arouse a fierce reaction from DPP supporters and helped consolidate the cohesion of the DPP.

Second, Lin I-hsiung's (林義雄) appearance on the stage at a campaign event in support of Chen also influenced pan-blue supporters' voting decisions.

Furthermore, a higher voter turnout of 67.93 percent, though lower than the turnout of 71.4 percent in the previous election, could also have influenced the election results in Kaohsiung since the higher the voter turnout, the more likely Chen was to be elected.

Other elements include previous DPP administrative achievements, such as the restoration of the Love River and other efforts to revive the arts and the cultural environment.

As to the political meaning of the election for next year's legislative elections under the new "single-member district, two-vote system," it is likely that the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and the People First Party will evaporate and the future political landscape will become purely a DPP-KMT divide.

Also, if former President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), the spiritual leader of the TSU, is willing to adjust his political strategy by replacing his Taiwanese independence ideology with a more moderate stance of "opposing Chinese rule," he will not only attract support from the DPP, but also from the pan-blue camp. In this way, he will be able to establish a "third power" that goes beyond the "blue versus green" idea.

In fact, standing at opposite ends of the spectrum of either supporting Taiwanese independence or advocating unification does not benefit Taiwan for the moment.

Whether Lee will be able to play an influential role in future politics will depend on what approaches he will choose to develop a consciousness for Taiwanese.

Also, the media should be blamed for the current political unrest.

"The media is a seed of poison planted by Taiwan" is a saying that reminds us not to be carried away by reporting which presents the political situation like a soap opera and causes people to become disillusioned.

It is ironic that pan-blue supporters do not use the same standard to judge President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) misuse of "state affairs funds" to examine irregularities in Taipei Mayor and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) use of his special mayoral mayoral allowance.

There is clearly a double standard at work here. If the pan-blue supporters can have leniency in their hearts, then I believe that Taiwanese politics will move in a healthy and positive direction.

Lee Chung-pan is a professor in the Department of Marine Environment and Engineering at National Sun Yat-sen University.

Compiled by Lin Ya-ti
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