If the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections, it will give a tremendous boost to the party's morale and lay a foundation for next year's legislative elections and the 2008 presidential election.
If, however, the DPP is defeated in both races, that will be a major blow.
If that happens, calls for President Chen Shui-bian's (
If the DPP loses Taipei but maintains its hold on Kaohsiung, that would be a small loss balanced by an important victory. In the Kaohsiung mayoral race, Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) mayoral candidate Lo Chih-ming (
Many pan-greens are now hoping that Lo will withdraw from the race to increase support for DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Chen Chu (
A politician must weigh the pros and cons before deciding if he or she wants to run for office. When Lo's only option is losing, and when a timely withdrawal could boost Chen Chu's campaign and the DPP as a whole, it is not only irrational to say that Lo should under no circumstances withdraw his candidacy, but it may also harm the green camp, as well as the TSU and Lo's own future.
If Lo does refuse to withdraw from the race, he will face one of three consequences.
First, if Chen Chu wins the election, Lo and the TSU will have played an insignificant role and the DPP will have shown that it is able to win elections without their support.
Second, if Chen Chu loses the election and the number of extra votes she needed to win is less than the number of votes Lo gains, then the TSU and Lo will be blamed for an important pan-green electoral loss.
If that happens, the long-term negative impact on both will be substantial.
Third, if Chen loses the election, and does so regardless of Lo's vote, Lo and the TSU will still give the pan-green camp the impression that they don't care about the bigger picture.
This would also affect the development of the party.
Taiwan's political situation is similar to that of the US: Two major political parties divide public support equally, leaving little space for smaller parties and almost no chance to compete for important positions.
If Lo's approval ratings were higher than Chen Chu's, I believe that pro-green camp political strategists and commentators would urge pan-green supporters to vote for Lo.
But this is not the reality.
If Lo does not quit, he will lose grassroots support, but if he considers the overall situation and decides to pull out, he can still hope to be elected to the legislature or other positions in future.
Withdrawing his candidacy is the only way to win.
Cao Changqing is a Chinese writer based in the US.
Translated by Daniel Cheng
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