On Nov. 2, I decided to write about what I thought the people of Taiwan were likely to encounter in the months and years ahead.
First I wrote on what the two major parties might do from the present to the presidential election in 2008, and then the options the two parties might entertain after the election.
On Nov. 3, much of what I wrote suddenly changed. Chief Prosecutor Eric Chen (
That is not to say that the political situation is now any clearer. There are still many people that want the president to step down, and others that continue to debate how the DPP should proceed.
The mayoral elections take place next month, and the legislature and the presidential election are not far off.
For weeks before, there were large demonstrations demanding the president step down from his duties and two recall motions were tabled in the Legislative Yuan, though both failed. Some of this intent still exists, but not with the fever of the past.
The problems of the DPP are by far greater, but even the problems of the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) now seem more visible.
So now when we consider what the two major parties will do -- the DPP and the KMT -- one finds some important differences from what we saw only a few days back.
For one thing, most people thought the indictment of first lady Wu Shu-jen (
For the DPP, in the next few months, the first priority must be to regain both the voters that left them over the last six months and the reputation for cleanliness the party once had. Given the short time before the next election, it also means much greater urgency in overcoming the harm done by the opposition's blockade of badly needed laws.
There is also one of President Chen Shui-bian's (
This is probably the most difficult and sensitive of the tasks confronting the governing party.
There is now intense rivalry within the DPP leadership for the 2008 presidential candidacy. This is natural and is generally decided a few months before the election.
But given the circumstances the party is in, with the opposition already having long had its probable candidate for the president chosen, a decision might be needed much sooner.
An almost equally important election for the new legislature will also need an unusually early decision to choose candidates.
Party objectives such as constitutional change and international recognition, among others, will be controversial. Beyond that, the differences within the DPP on many domestic issues will be difficult to resolve. The party is divided and will require a lot of time to reach a consensus.
The events of the last few months in Taiwan brought another challenge to Taiwan's democracy. On the KMT side, elements of the pan-blue media were instrumental in trying to force Chen Shui-bian to give up the presidency.
Earlier, the pan-blue parties began dealing directly with China through the Chinese Communist Party. And before that, members of the legislature, under the same political grouping, blocked important laws required for Taiwan's governance.
The KMT is also in a period of internal and external change. The results are still uncertain. However, the party has had one unifying objective -- to regain power at any cost.
To an extent, that is not unusual in any democratic country. What is different, however, is the many activities by the opposition in holding direct meetings with Chinese officials on matters that should include government officials.
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (
The results may change some of the assurances that have been heard up to now.
There is, however, a clear difference between the two main political parties, not only in ideology, but in their party systems.
This difference is based on the ideology regarding independence versus unification with China.
One side looks to creation of an open political system, while the other side looks to a more disciplined system, more like in Singapore, at the expense of democracy.
If the pan-blue camp wins the forthcoming elections and forges a closer relationship with China, not only would the power-balance in the region face a challenge but also the security and development of all democratic forces in East Asia would be affected.
The DPP naturally tends to stand on the side of democratic countries. The present opposition seems to want Taiwan's future to be more reliant on the China relationship.
One can be sure that, when the current set of elections in Taiwan is completed, the US, Japan, Southeast Asian countries and many others will be watching with considerable interest.
Nat Bellocchi is former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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