The next few weeks could prove to be a make or break period for Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (
With former Democratic Progressive Party chairman Shih Ming-teh's (
An even sterner test of his leadership lies just around the corner when the new legislative session begins on Sept. 19 -- passage of the long delayed special arms procurement bill.
According to a recent interview with an anonymous US official, Washington has begun to have doubts about Taiwan's determination to defend itself in the event of a cross-strait war and the White House believes Taipei isn't serious about buying defensive weapons. These doubts are a result of the legislature's unwillingness to pass the arms bill.
The US official went on to say that the next two months would be crucial for the future of Taiwan's relationship with the US, saying that it could move forward, stagnate or take a step backward. If the arms bill is not passed within the first two months of the new legislative session, the official said, then the US doesn't believe it will pass at all during President Chen Shui-bian's (
The frustration caused by more than two years of delays has already forced Washington to make changes in the way it deals with arms sales to Taiwan. In future, the Pentagon will only announce sales when the budget has been passed by the Legislative Yuan. The first example of this new modus operandi is likely to be the purchase of 66 F-16 fighters, but even this proposal has already been rejected by sections of the KMT.
Only a dramatic shift in posture by the KMT legislative caucus will secure the passage of the bill, and Ma, as party chairman, is the one charged with prompting this shift.
Having visited the US in March and having met with top officials, Ma is aware of how much importance Washington places on swift passage of the bill.
Indeed, concerns about US relations and his aim of winning the presidency in 2008 are probably the rationales behind the "reasonable arms purchase" doctrine that Ma has preached over the last year.
To satisfy Taiwan's main ally and enhance his appeal to moderate voters that value close US ties, reject unification with China and would like Taiwan to maintain a defense capability, Ma needs to ensure the passage of the bill.
But maintaining the integrity of his leadership involves striking a delicate balance between deep and light-blue elements within his party and not upsetting the pro-China forces that are fiercely opposed to any arms deal and are working to undermine Ma's chairmanship.
Rumors of a watered-down arms deal passing the legislature are already circulating in the press.
If Ma manages to get an arms bill passed that is acceptable to the US, his pan-blue colleagues and the majority of Taiwanese then he will have navigated an extremely hazardous minefield.
But any failure to get a bill passed could jeopardize any US support for his candidacy, do lasting harm to his carefully cultivated domestic image and further embolden those within the pan-blue ranks who want someone else as their leader.
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