The unpredictable North Korea has once again shocked the world.
Despite the fact that a US spy satellite had warned that this hermit regime was preparing to carry out missile tests a month ago, North Korea's July 7 launches of seven ballistic missiles, including one Taepodong 2 -- a long-range two-stage missile theoretically capable of reaching continental US -- still caused neighboring countries to be seriously concerned.
In response, Japan, the US and the UK urgently prepared a draft UN resolution to impose sanctions on North Korea, indicating their grave worries about this crisis.
As North Korea's missile tests remind us about the highly unstable situation on the Korea Peninsula, by contrast, another "flashpoint" -- Taiwan -- faces a more imminent military threat than that posed by Pyongyang. China has pointed more than 800 ballistic missiles at Taiwan, but the world deliberately ignores this.
Because of Taiwan's unparalleled geopolitical importance, located between key Pacific sea lanes, it is clear that continuing to neglect China's formidable threat to Taiwan bodes ill for the region and the entire world.
Last year, China enacted its "Anti-Secession" Law, which laid out a legal justification for Chinese military action to take over Taiwan and prevent Taiwan from becoming formally independent. Although this law is not a timetable to invade Taiwan, it declares that China "should" use "non-peaceful" or other necessary measures against Taiwan whenever the Chinese leadership decides that all possibilities for "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan have been exhausted.
In short, according to this law, the Beijing authorities reserve the right to interpret where the "red line" is that Taiwan must not cross, to judge whether Taiwan has crossed it and to decide when it would launch military action against Taiwan.
In the meantime, China has rapidly modernized its military force, which is aimed, quietly but obviously, at the US and deters US intervention in a possible cross-strait conflict. According to the Pentagon's latest Report on the Military Power of the People' Republic of China, Beijing will deploy at least four new ICBMs in the near future, including the Dongfeng-31, its sibling the Dongfeng-31A, and the submarine-launched Julang-1 and 2. All of these will be capable of striking targets in the continental US.
Moreover, some Chinese strategists have publicly or privately asserted that China would use nuclear weapon if they come into military conflict with the US. Last July, People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Zhu Chenghu (
While the military balance across the Taiwan Strait has shifted in China's favor, it is surprising that Taiwan continues let its military strength wane and its power weaken. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP), have vetoed the special arms procurement bill 56 times in the legislature in the past two years. Actually, the arms in the bill, including diesel submarines, P3-C maritime patrol aircraft and PAC-3 missile defense batteries, were included in Taiwan's arms procurement wish list when the KMT was the ruling party in the 1990s.
The opposition emphasizes that weapons are not the answer to protecting Taiwan; instead, they only increase hostility. Furthermore, the opposition maintains that viewing China as an enemy is a "self-fulfilling prophecy" and that promoting peace and Taiwan's democratic experience are the only ways to benefit Taiwan. On the other hand, forging closer military ties with Japan and the US would eventually put Taiwan on the front line if they come into conflict with China.
In fact, such thinking is dangerously misguided. There is no doubt that Taiwan, which enjoys the fruits of prosperity and democracy, depends on the US' strong military support. If the US had not quickly dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups near Taiwan during China's 1996 missile tests near Taiwan, it is possible that the situation of Taiwan and East Asia would be completely different today.
As a result, Taiwan's lack of seriousness about its defense causes great concerns to its security partners, especially Japan and the US. Washington has publicly and privately urged Taiwan to strive to upgrade its defense, and has even bluntly expressed that it would no longer be interested in the Taiwan issue if Taipei continues to neglect its precarious security environment.
Recently, Japan, which also faces China's military threat, sternly questioned Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
Developing strong economic ties and promoting cultural exchanges might ease cross-strait tensions and contribute to mutual understanding. But despite these efforts, it is clear that China will not remove its 800 missiles targeted at Taiwan, unless Taiwan surrenders to the Beijing authorities or accepts Beijing's "one country, two systems" scheme, which has proven a total failure in Hong Kong.
In addition to military force, Beijing has also slowly and steadily used its economic and political clout to deepen Taiwan's economic dependence on China and deprive Taiwan of international space. In the end, Beijing hopes to force Taiwan to accept its terms for unification.
Taiwan is often referred to as a "vibrant" democracy. Ironically, this system now provides a stage for political infighting and is endangering both itself and its neighbors. In a worldview based in realpolitik, peace and democracy are not as free as the air we breathe, but are rather based on strong military power. Faced with a saber-rattling China, poorly defended Taiwan is jeopardizing its democracy and its very existence.
Tu Ho-ting is a Taiwan-based journalist and analyst.
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