Since Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) announced that she will step aside to make way for a stronger vice presidential candidate in next year's presidential election, people from all sides have begun discussion who President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) might choose as his future running mate.
Due to pressure both inside and outside the DPP, Chen was forced to respond on the matter the next day, saying that it is not yet an issue as the ruling party has not yet started its nomination process.
Since the Taiwanese electorate is considered relatively stable, and there is no other internal or external variable that could affect the election situation, the media have viewed the running-mate issue as a key factor in the likely outcome of the election results. Opinion polls have included questions about a number of possible candidates.
But, is a running mate so important that he or she could completely change a party's prospects? Looking at past presidential elections both at home and abroad, I doubt it.
In order to complement his own roots in China, as well as to narrow the gap between northern and southern Taiwan, PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) deliberately chose PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung (張昭雄), who was born in Kaohsiung, as his running mate in the 2000 presidential election. Unfortunately for Soong, he did not get the support of pro-localization voters, and his vote tally in Kaohsiung in fact lagged far behind that of Chen.
Similarly, Chen picked Lu -- then Taoyuan County commissioner -- as his running mate, to attract votes in northern Taiwan. But he received the fewest votes in Taoyuan County of all three presidential candidates. The contribution of running mates is therefore self-evident.
In the 1988 US presidential election, many believed that Dan Quayle -- Republican candidate George Bush's running mate -- was too young and unsophisticated, and therefore should not be considered. They believed that Lloyd Bentsen -- Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis' running mate -- was experienced and enjoyed great popularity. But Bush was elected president, and Quayle, initially dismissed as a joke, accordingly became vice president.
Some believe in what has become known as the "earthworm theory" about the influence of running mates on election results. They believe that running mates are just like anglers' earthworms. Their sizes and weights may vary from one to another, but they are bait, pure and simple.
An angler may of course take the greatest care to choose the most attractive bait. But whether he can catch his fish eventually depends on his or her ability. In other words, the influence of running mates on the election outcome is insignificant.
I believe that voters' choices depend on the qualities, abilities and policies of presidential candidates. The "running mate effect" has now been exaggerated and politicized. No matter who Chen's running mate will be, please note that Chen and Lien are the leading actors in the upcoming presidential election. They are the helmsmen who will decide the nation's future direction. Let's put the spotlight on the two presidential candidates themselves.
Chiu Li-li is a Tainan City councilor.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) led a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan in late February. During their various meetings with Taiwan’s leaders, this delegation never missed an opportunity to emphasize the strength of their cross-party consensus on issues relating to Taiwan and China. Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi are leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Their instruction upon taking the reins of the committee was to preserve China issues as a last bastion of bipartisanship in an otherwise deeply divided Washington. They have largely upheld their pledge. But in doing so, they have performed the
It is well known that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambition is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation by unification of Taiwan, either peacefully or by force. The peaceful option has virtually gone out of the window with the last presidential elections in Taiwan. Taiwanese, especially the youth, are resolved not to be part of China. With time, this resolve has grown politically stronger. It leaves China with reunification by force as the default option. Everyone tells me how and when mighty China would invade and overpower tiny Taiwan. However, I have rarely been told that Taiwan could be defended to
It should have been Maestro’s night. It is hard to envision a film more Oscar-friendly than Bradley Cooper’s exploration of the life and loves of famed conductor and composer Leonard Bernstein. It was a prestige biopic, a longtime route to acting trophies and more (see Darkest Hour, Lincoln, and Milk). The film was a music biopic, a subgenre with an even richer history of award-winning films such as Ray, Walk the Line and Bohemian Rhapsody. What is more, it was the passion project of cowriter, producer, director and actor Bradley Cooper. That is the kind of multitasking -for-his-art overachievement that Oscar
Chinese villages are being built in the disputed zone between Bhutan and China. Last month, Chinese settlers, holding photographs of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), moved into their new homes on land that was not Xi’s to give. These residents are part of the Chinese government’s resettlement program, relocating Tibetan families into the territory China claims. China shares land borders with 15 countries and sea borders with eight, and is involved in many disputes. Land disputes include the ones with Bhutan (Doklam plateau), India (Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin) and Nepal (near Dolakha and Solukhumbu districts). Maritime disputes in the South China