As the new year begins, we have reached a new turning point in relations across the Taiwan Strait. Speaking of cross-strait relations in his New Year's speech, President Chen Shui-bian (
In response to Jiang Zemin's (
The speeches of leaders on the two sides send out a good message and a bad one. The good message is that the leaders on both sides are interested in resuming cross-strait talks. A silver lining has finally appeared on the dark clouds that formed during two-and-a-half years of deadlock.
The bad message is that the fundamental milieu of cross-strait relations has not changed. Both sides are embroiled in unification-independence and war-peace disputes. What's more, China has not changed its "one China" precondition for talks, which is unacceptable to Taiwan. The New Year's speeches of the two leaders are therefore little more than lip service, still far from the thaw of spring.
The leaders on both sides are interested in direct links and the resumption of talks. Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) also said that cross-strait talks can begin from economic issues, and that the first half of this year would be the best opportunity for resuming talks. But in fact there is much disagreement in Taiwan on the direct links issue. The TSU and some factions in the DPP oppose direct links, which will turn China into Taiwan's biggest export market. Taiwan's capital outflow to China will increase and Taiwan's economic dependency on China will deepen, thereby further marginalizing Taiwan in the international community. Even if China does not set the "one China" precondition, and even if Chen hopes to establish direct links, this is not necessarily the DPP's or the pan-green camp's consensus.
But Chen did propose a new concept of "a framework of interaction for peace and stability" and promoting direct transport links and related trade issues on a mutually beneficial economic platform. Chen said in his speech that he hoped to create a common niche for economic development in the first 20 years of the 21st century. This echoed the objective trumpeted at the CPC's 16th National Congress: that of concentrating on development up to the year 2020.
There are issues to discuss regarding cross-strait relations, but there is no foundation for resuming talks. Under these circumstances, resuming talks will be a laborious and fruitless endeavor. It would be better for each side to work on its own economic development, resolve its own domestic issues and wait until the two sides' economic conditions have become more similar. When there is a deeper understanding of the cross-strait economic cooperation platform and more pressing demand, the resumption of talks will come naturally. This is the significance behind Chen's proposal that the two sides first build a framework of interaction for peace and stability.
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