If KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
One big problem with Lien and Soong is their inability to move past the bitterness of their defeat in the 2000 election. Admittedly, a Lien-Soong ticket in that election could have brought victory to the KMT. But it is unlikely to prove successful in the future. After all, in 2000 the KMT had all the advantages, including government resources, plus the leadership and full support of then president Lee Teng-hui (
Popular support for Lien has steadily deteriorated over the last two years, especially since his break with Lee. Lien's chances of winning an election on his own now are practically non-existent. Even more important is that the main obstacle in 2000 to a Lien-Soong ticket remains unresolved. Which one will run for the presidency? Who will have to be content with playing second fiddle?
Soong could not accept Lee's decision to choose Lien as his successor. Had he been willing to accept the No. 2 position for the last election, the PFP would not exist. The amount of mud-slinging that ensued reached record-heights, even for Taiwan. Hard to believe that either Lien or Soong could agree on anything again. But they finally did -- their loathing of Lee and the DPP government is a bond. Lee finally washed his hands of the KMT last year precisely because of Lien's decision to mend fences with Soong.
Since Soong is by far the more popular politician, it is stupid to think that he would accept the No. 2 spot in 2004 just because the bulk of campaign funding will come from the KMT's deep pockets. If two men do agree to team up, could the KMT reject a PFP demand to use popularity surveys to determine whether Lien or Soong takes the top job? The two parties have already used such surveys to determine the candidates for the local government chief
elections.
But lets say the fates are kind to Lien and by some miracle, he does succeed in becoming president, with Soong by his side. Soong is likely to prove as voluble a vice president as the incumbent -- he is not the type to be content with being a silent partner. He would likely demand a big say in the make-up of the administration. He would also have the votes to back him up in any showdown between the two parties over the sharing of government positions and resources.
Last, but not least, a Lien-Soong ticket would fly in the face of political accountability that both parties have so stoutly demanded in the Legislative Yuan -- at least every time the DPP has tried to include a non-DPP member in the government. Which party would be held accountable for any mistakes or shortcomings by a Lien-Soong government?
If the the KMT and the PFP really want to win in 2004, they will have to stop living in the past. Actually, they might as well just go ahead and merge now to try and avoid all the controversy two years from now.
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