Environmental ministers and cabinet officials from more than 160 countries attended a UN-sponsored summit on climate change in Bonn. It seems that a last-minute compromise at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP6) has isolated the Bush administration even further on the issue of the Kyoto Protocol.
This impression is far-fetched, despite the hand-wringing by pundits. In the first instance, not one industrialized country and only a dozen developing countries have so far ratified the protocol. And under the current deal, the global cut in emissions will only be about one-third of the original goal for reducing greenhouse gas output by the largest industrialized nations. Once brought into force, the Kyoto Protocol, as envisioned in 1997, would install a compliance system based on specific targets for cutting emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.
Industrialized countries would be required to cut greenhouse gas emissions to an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. For the US, this would mean cuts of about 20 percent from present levels. To become effective, the Kyoto Protocol (also known as COP3) needs to be ratified by 55 countries that account for most of the industrialized world's emssions. In the end, Japan sided with many of the other countries to reach a compromise agreement promoted by the EU.
Not surprisingly, the final agreement involved considerable compromises, including substantial European concessions to Japan that was seeking a softening of the approach on compliance mechanisms. The EU also conceded to Japan, Canada, Russia and others on using "sinks" to aid industrialized countries reduce carbon dioxide and other types of greenhouse gases. Sinks result from forest-management techniques wherein trees absorb carbon dioxide. It also includes a funding package to aid developing countries in adapting to climate change
Much is made of that many climate experts agree with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) set up by the World Meteorological Organization and UN Environment Program. Three of the panel's recent reports cover the science of climate change, its impact and the technologies and policies needed to combat it. Their most recent conclusion is that temperatures could rise by between 1.4C and 5.8C this century, a shift from the 1995 prediction of an increase of 1C to 3.5C.
There seems to be an instinct for opinion makers to accept the worst case when it comes to global warming. However, evidence that the science on this issue remains unsettled is found in the panel's admission that there are gaps in scientific understanding. Consequently, the panel's forecasts may be apocryphal, despite the apocalyptic tone. Despite this evidence of unresolved scientific issues, critics of global warming tend to be ignored by the general public and often vilified or ridiculed by the media. Perhaps the most damning criticism is that impressions of a worsening outlook for global warming were caused by a change in the panel's methodology. Instead of reflecting improvements in scientific knowledge, much of the increase is explained by the fact that newer computer simulations include a wider range of scenarios relating to demographic, and technological developments.
Without scientific consensus, the economic costs relating to implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are also hard to figure. How much this would cost depends upon assumptions about technological advances and the use of mechanisms included in the protocol that allow emission cuts to be made at the lowest possible cost. According to the panel, implementation of the Kyoto Protocol could cost as little as 0.1 percent and as much as 2 percent of GDP in different regions in 2010.
In terms of public opinion, too many people unfortunately remember headlines or sound bites that unambiguously support the global warming mantra. Concerned citizens who wish to have a more balanced view might wish to consider some of the following observations. During recent decades, an increasingly proportion of land-based measurements were made inside urban "heat islands" or at airports. Not surprisingly, those taken outside these areas indicate less warming over the past 60 years. Most of the warming that was recorded during the 20th century occurred after what is known as the "little ice age." Satellite data and Weather Balloon Radiosonde measurements do not indicate any warming of the atmosphere over the last 20 years.
Anecdotal reports that global warming has caused a thinning of polar ice are not supported by evidence. Observed changes in the thickness of Arctic ice seem to be cyclical in nature. Most of the scientific literature on Antarctic ice sheets apparently indicates that there are complex factors affecting these sheets that are poorly understood.
When I have cited these observations to individuals who feel concerned and informed about global warming, they express surprise that they have never seen counter arguments. They also question disbelief that scientists might be withholding information and are skeptical that they have a motive to behave dishonestly. It is easy to overlook the fact that pro-Kyoto climatologists have a conflict of interest in that they can benefit from grants associated with research into global warming.
Politicians also jump onto the bandwagon of the gravy train for public monies. The rest of us are not innocent bystanders in all this. We need to be better armed against self-serving scientists and tax-hungry politicians. We would all benefit if there were less hot air and toxic rhetoric about global climate issues.
Christopher Lingle is Global Strategist for eConoLytics.com
A series of strong earthquakes in Hualien County not only caused severe damage in Taiwan, but also revealed that China’s power has permeated everywhere. A Taiwanese woman posted on the Internet that she found clips of the earthquake — which were recorded by the security camera in her home — on the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu. It is spine-chilling that the problem might be because the security camera was manufactured in China. China has widely collected information, infringed upon public privacy and raised information security threats through various social media platforms, as well as telecommunication and security equipment. Several former TikTok employees revealed
For the incoming Administration of President-elect William Lai (賴清德), successfully deterring a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) attack or invasion of democratic Taiwan over his four-year term would be a clear victory. But it could also be a curse, because during those four years the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will grow far stronger. As such, increased vigilance in Washington and Taipei will be needed to ensure that already multiplying CCP threat trends don’t overwhelm Taiwan, the United States, and their democratic allies. One CCP attempt to overwhelm was announced on April 19, 2024, namely that the PLA had erred in combining major missions
At the same time as more than 30 military aircraft were detected near Taiwan — one of the highest daily incursions this year — with some flying as close as 37 nautical miles (69kms) from the northern city of Keelung, China announced a limited and selected relaxation of restrictions on Taiwanese agricultural exports and tourism, upon receiving a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) delegation led by KMT legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁). This demonstrates the two-faced gimmick of China’s “united front” strategy. Despite the strongest earthquake to hit the nation in 25 years striking Hualien on April 3, which caused
The Constitutional Court on Tuesday last week held a debate over the constitutionality of the death penalty. The issue of the retention or abolition of the death penalty often involves the conceptual aspects of social values and even religious philosophies. As it is written in The Federalist Papers by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay, the government’s policy is often a choice between the lesser of two evils or the greater of two goods, and it is impossible to be perfect. Today’s controversy over the retention or abolition of the death penalty can be viewed in the same way. UNACCEPTABLE Viewing the