The now-complete ascent of Chinese President Hu Jintao (
Part of the coming changes will be in style. Hu is regarded as a reserved, even self-effacing technocrat in contrast to the abrasive and sometimes pompous Jiang. Hu is an engineer who has climbed the political ladder by sticking to the party line, avoiding controversy and keeping his own counsel.
Those who look to Hu for political reform will probably be disappointed. He was ruthless in suppressing Tibetans seeking autonomy and religious freedom while he headed the party apparatus there from 1988 to 1992. In recent speeches, Hu has scorned Western democracy as a "blind alley" that would lead China to a "dead end."
And last week, Hu affirmed his belief in the authority of the Communist Party when he lauded "a great solidarity among all political parties, communities, ethnic groups, social groups and all China-loving people under the leadership of the CCP."
As a China hand in the US asserts: "He is a CCP man to the core."
Moreover, Hu is confronted by enormous domestic problems, including 40 percent unemployment and underemployment, an inadequate healthcare system, rampant pollution, a corrupt banking sector, inefficient state-owned enterprises and an uncertain supply of energy and raw materials for China's growing economy.
Thus, Hu may not be as confrontational as Jiang toward the US, particularly when China enjoys a US$150 billion export market there, by far China's largest. Moreover, the US, along with Japan and Taiwan, are major sources of direct foreign investment in China, providing technology and jobs.
Even so, Hu evinces the fear of many Chinese leaders that the US is forging an "arc of containment" around China. A scholar at the Singapore Institute for International Affairs, Eric Teo (
Hu and the US, however, will continue to make common cause in seeking to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. Hu will likely be tougher on North Korea than Jiang because he is more pragmatic, less ideological and wants to preclude Pyongyang from selling nuclear arms and missiles to other rogue nations or terrorists.
With South Korea, Hu will continue the effort to wean Seoul away from its alliance with the US and to coax the South Koreans into submissive relations with Beijing like those of China's dynastic days. China has asserted that the ancient Korean kingdom of Koguryo was actually part of China, a claim that has angered Koreans.
Hu's approach to Japan will apparently differ from that of Jiang, who stirred animosity during his visit to Tokyo in 1998 by accusing Japan of failing to acknowledge its responsibilities for WWII. In contrast, this week in Beijing Hu met with Yohei Kono, speaker of the Diet's lower house, and sought to encourage good relations with a Japan that is becoming more assertive.
On Taiwan, Hu shares the views of Jiang, which is to say that Taiwan belongs to China and China will use military force to conquer the island if people there do not submit. In Hu's presence this week, Jiang said he preferred "peaceful reunification" but that "we shall by no means make the commitment to forsake the use of force. This is a major political principle."
There is no reason to believe that Hu disagreed.
Richard Halloran is a freelance writer based in Hawaii.
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
The Legislative Yuan passed an amendment on Friday last week to add four national holidays and make Workers’ Day a national holiday for all sectors — a move referred to as “four plus one.” The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who used their combined legislative majority to push the bill through its third reading, claim the holidays were chosen based on their inherent significance and social relevance. However, in passing the amendment, they have stuck to the traditional mindset of taking a holiday just for the sake of it, failing to make good use of
RSS