The audacity of the pan-blue supporters in their advert on page 5 of the Taipei Times on May 20 was breathtaking.
Apparently, "36 hours before the vote, all independent polls showed [President Chen Shui-bian (
A week before the election, it appeared Lien was probably roughly 2 percent ahead, by no means enough for an opposition candidate to be confident of victory given the swing to the incumbent that often occurs in the last week of election campaigns. There was no real consensus in the polls, with both sides offering conflicting data. One doubts the sophistication of the opinion polling organizations, having had only 10 to 15 years to practice their art. Polls conducted by organizations with decades of experience have been spectacularly wrong in mature democracies.
Apparently, "Underground gambling organizations were offering 2-to-1 odds against [Chen]." The obvious question is, of course, how do they know? This question was answered however when I was told that they know people in underground gambling organizations. No surprise there then. What they appear to have missed is that they have underlined the most plausible explanation for the shooting. Not politics, but money.
Hiding behind the disclaimer "people say," the advert says "you and your camp staged the gunshot incident in a desperate attempt to turn around the election." This is a cowardly attempt to tarnish the DPP's image by using hearsay and Josef Goebbels' theory: "Tell a lie that is big enough, and repeat it often enough, and the whole world will believe it." Given People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) past as head of the Government Information Office, perhaps these tactics are not too surprising. What is surprising is their amateurishness.
These are of course very serious allegations and if they prove to be true, few would disagree that Chen is absolutely not fit to be president. If they prove to be untrue then a humble apology will be in order. To accuse someone of cheating in an election campaign is serious. To accuse someone who has been shot of staging it for personal gain is as serious as it gets.
Fortunately, I was informed by the people I spoke to that an apology would be in order and they simply want the truth. I was not told whether this would be in the form of an equally large advert in the Taipei Times. I was also told that they trusted in [forensic scientist] Henry Lee's investigation. What room this leaves for further investigation is not clear.
The truth about this advert is that it is a cheap attempt at slander through hearsay drawing on dubious and unsubstantiated sources. No references were given to specific polls. For obvious reasons no references were given to the contacts in underground gambling organizations. No details were given of what was meant by "Taiwan's Warren Commission" and no details were given of the advertiser.
Toby Wilsdon
Sanchung
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