Sun, May 02, 2004 page8

• Editorial: The status quo is far from static

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  On Thursday, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage announced in a televised interview that the US has some specific hopes regarding the May 20 inauguration speech of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). Specifically, the US hopes Chen will reiterate the "five noes" pledge he made four years ago.

  High-ranking Presidential Office staff members immediately indicated in private that the so-called "five noes" pledge will be reiterated in the inauguration speech, although not in exactly the same words.

  Because this all came about after a US visit by Presidential Office Secretary-General Chiou I-Jen (邱義仁), it is reasonable to believe that the Chen government and the Bush administration reached agreement about the basic framework of Taiwan's cross-strait policy for the next four years. Under the so-called "five noes" pledge, Chen had promised during his first presidential speech four years ago that as long as China did not use force against Taiwan, his government would not declare independence, change the name of the country, incorporate the "special state-to-state" discourse of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in the Constitution, or hold any referendum on independence or unification issues. In a nutshell, this was a vow not to change the cross-strait status quo.

  Reviewing Chen's first term, despite controversies and debates regarding the cross-strait policy, it is safe to conclude that he kept his word. Neither Lee's "special state-to-state" discourse nor Chen's own talk about "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait, which many deem to be a continuation of Lee's policy, have been incorporated into the Constitution. The defensive referendum held simultaneously with the presidential election, which had supposedly caused much concern in the US, had nothing to do with the independence-unification issue.

  However, does this mean that the cross-strait status quo has been maintained? Obviously this is not the case. For one, consistent with the rise of nativist consciousness in Taiwan in past decades, the Taiwanese sense of national identity has reached an all-time high -- although many still feel that there is a long way to go in this regard. This is demonstrated by Chen's electoral defeat of KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), who had advocated casting aside the issue of sovereignty during the election campaign.

  Moreover, one can hardly argue that the cross-strait status quo is being maintained when the imbalance between the military powers on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has reached a new extreme. This was confirmed by US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly during a congressional hearing last week, in which he said that over the past 25 years China has repeatedly reassured the US of its willingness to peacefully resolve the Taiwan issue, but in practice it has continued to increase the number of missiles targeting Taiwan by 50 to 75 each year.

  So while all expectations are on Taiwan to exercise self-restraint, which Taiwan has largely done, what is being done to keep China from losing control? Can anything be done to accomplish that goal?

  If maintaining the status quo means that Taiwan cannot have any presence in the international community -- even when sensitive sovereignty issues are not touched, as in the inability of Taiwan to merely obtain observer status as a "health entity" -- it is no wonder that the popular will in Taiwan is hungrily looking for other options.
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