One day after his nomination as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, President Chen Shui-bian (
One important reason that Lu was chosen, despite doubts in the party and outside it about her ability to draw voters who are not traditional DPP supporters, is the rising popular support for Chen in the opinion polls.
Various polls show Chen catching up or even gaining a lead. Even the campaign headquarters of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (
Under the circumstances, Chen obviously feels much more confident about not relying on his running mate to win brownie points from the voters. While choosing a new partner may bring in new votes, it also comes with risks associated with the unpredictability of a new partnership.
Moreover, while Lu may have been a somewhat controversial figure in the past, she has made a tremendous effort in the past year to change her style. Her level of cooperation with and strong sense of loyalty to Chen have convinced the president to keep her as his running mate for the sake of stability and harmony within the party.
With the return of most of the old faces from the last election, except for New Party presidential nominee Li Ao (李敖) and vice presidential nominee Elmer Feng (馮滬祥) -- whose absence surely pleases most sane people in Taiwan -- the 2004 presidential election is looking more and more like a class reunion.
However, things are different in many ways. First, Lien and Soong, who in the last election ran respectively as KMT and independent candidates, have joined forces this time. They hope that by teaming up, they will win all the votes garnered by each in the last election, which would essentially guarantee the pan-blue camp an election win.
Unfortunately for the pan-blue camp, things might not work out that way. Many voters will, as they should, examine the performance of Lien and Soong, as well as their parties' performance, over the past four years.
In terms of their performance, Lien and Soong do not have much to brag about. For one thing, the KMT's ill-gotten party assets, which were a major issue in the last election, remain an unresolved issue. Moreover, the voters can see for themselves how the pan-blue camp has abused its legislative majority to block the policy initiatives of the Chen government. The pan-blue camp is having a tough time learning to be the opposition.
Even more important is the uncertainty people feel about how the government would be run if Lien and Soong were elected. After all, Taiwan has never had a president and vice president who belonged to different parties. With the KMT and PFP having trouble working together in the presidential campaign, it is hard to imagine how things would work out if they were elected.
In contrast, Chen and Lu offer comparative stability and predictability -- issues of importance to the moderate voters who will probably decide the election. Moreover, it is not hard to see that the DPP has shown much more progress in learning how to be a ruling party than the KMT and PFP have shown in learning how to be the opposition.
Under the circumstances, the only thing that is certain is that the election will be very tight.
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