Fri, Aug 16, 2002 page8

• China to blame for today's tensions

  • By Paul Lin 林保華
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  There have been strong reactions to President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) "one country on each side" speech, not because the wording is inaccurate, but for several other reasons.

  The reason why the "one country on each side" statement makes sense is that it puts into words the reality of the current cross-strait situation. Who can deny the fact that on one side of the Taiwan Strait we have the Republic of China, while on the other side, there is the People's Republic of China? Without a doubt, Taiwan does not have the ability to deny the existence of the People's Republic of China. If Taiwan herself denies that there is "one country on each side," should the name "Republic of China" be altered to "A Province of China" or "A Region of China?" In a spirit of denouncing anything Chen says, some politicians complain loudly that "one country on each side" ignores the bigger picture. If the Taiwan where they make their living is not a country, then what is it, pray tell? If the opposition parties reject their own country, then they are loyal to China and not to the people of Taiwan.

  As for the referendum issue, that does not pose a problem in democratic countries. Since Taiwan is a democracy, what is so wrong about letting the people decide the great question about the country's future in a referendum? This cannot be opposed simply because China opposes it. If it were, then what sovereignty and independence would there be to speak of? China's statement that "referendum implies war" makes even less sense than its statement in 2000 that "Taiwan independence [leadership] at the helm implies war," since a referendum is merely a means of making a decision, not the decision itself. Even if there were to be a referendum on the question of unification or independence, why start a war before the outcome has even been decided?

  What China fears is not the reason for a referendum, but the democratic procedure of a referendum in itself. If Taiwan wants to decide its future in a referendum, then if Jiang Zemin (江澤民) wants to stay in power after the 16th National Congress, he can no longer continue to operate behind closed doors, but must let the whole party and the entire people of China decide the matter in a referendum. Is this something that Jiang and the party can tolerate? The opposition of some Taiwan politicians to a referendum assists China's dictatorship in its machinations, whereas, as an advertisement for democracy in Taiwan it could in fact be used to promote change in China.

  So there are reasons behind China's strong opposition to President Chen and his statements. On the one hand, the fundamental conflict between the two countries' political systems necessitates China's opposition. On the other hand, China is facing the difficult situation of a leadership change at the 16th National Congress, and Jiang needs the support of the army to become a modern-day Yuan Shikai (袁世凱). It therefore becomes difficult for him not to put on a show. In October, however, Jiang is to visit US President George W. Bush at his ranch to share a barbecue and chew the fat, and his cries for war will therefore not persist for long. There is no need for Taiwan to worry, but there is even less need for China to threaten the people of Taiwan.

  The American reaction is also understandable. From the release of the Defense Department's report Military Power of the People's Republic of China and the first annual report from the congressional US-China Security Review Commission, we can see that the Bush administration is adopting a more aggressive Taiwan policy. The US, however, has been concentrating its efforts on its anti-terrorism campaign since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and lately it has been concentrating on a possible attack on Iraq. It is considering a restructuring of the Middle East order that will bring a comprehensive solution to the Middle East's problems, and, of course, hopes to avoid instability in Asia.

  The Americans are more surprised than displeased by the "one country on each side" statement, and this is due to a lack of coordination. Speaking of which, it would also be more to the point to say that it is China that has created problems for the US, rather than to blame it on Taiwan. The reason for this is that China used big money to buy diplomatic recognition from Nauru, forcing the nation to sever relations with Taiwan, thereby creating an awkward situation for Chen as he took over as chairman of the DPP. China then used this situation to aggravate the tense cross-strait situation in order to distract the US. Similarly concentrating on the Middle Eastern situation and, perhaps, reluctant to contemplate additional complications in Asia, some Western media organizations initially did not understand this. They did not denounce the "one country on each side" statement, but were concerned that the challenge it posed to China would provoke an unreasonable response and that the US would not have the time to attend to the situation.

  This is why, before Taiwan provided an explanation, the US took the view that Chen's statement was a response to the domestic political situation in Taiwan, and not a deliberate attempt to stir up trouble, in the hope that they would be able to find a way for both sides to back down. Still a few days later, the US and Western media changed their tune and condemned China's threats of armed force and showed an understanding of Taiwan's actions to counter China. Unless the political power struggle in China dictates otherwise, this whole episode can therefore be considered to be over and done with.

  Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.

  Translated by Perry Svensson
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