For many Americans, a new year means a diet, and this year there is a good chance that it's a low-carbohydrate, high-protein one. More than 10 million people are following a low-carb regimen like the Atkins diet, the Zone or the South Beach diet, according to the NPD Group, a market research company in Chicago.
Recognizing the size of the trend, nearly every part of the food industry, from manufacturers to restaurant chains, has introduced low-carb products.
"We're just seeing the leading edge of this, but low-carb is becoming ubiquitous," said Dean Rotbart, executive editor of LowCarbiz, a trade newsletter that started last July and is based in Denver. "Atkins has become something like Kleenex is to facial tissue."
But marketing food that fits a certain dietary style is not without risks, and many companies now face the question of whether they are better off forming a partnership with a name-brand diet or going it alone. "There is a debate in the industry about whether you want to live and die by a diet's fortunes, or if you want to stay more generic," said John Glass, a restaurant analyst at CIBC World Markets in Boston. "Using a branded association immediately gets you more notice, but it also limits your appeal."
The high-protein crowd received an unexpected scare with the recent announcement that a cow in the US was found to have mad cow disease. Depending on the extent of the problem, diets that encourage the consumption of red meat could become less popular. Seventy percent of Americans are expressing some concern about mad cow disease, according to a survey on food safety conducted in late December by NPD, which has been tracking food trends since 1980.
"There is clearly great concern about this, but as for a change in behavior, I think that depends on how many cows get sick," said Harry Balzer, vice president of NPD. "If the bovine bonfires of Great Britain come to the US, you'll see a significant drop in meat consumption. But if it is like Canada with only one cow, I don't think it will have a major impact."
Balzer said he did not see a single infected cow as a threat to the low-carb craze. "Americans are still going to want to lose weight, and this is the hot diet," he said. "It could cause a shift in the meat component and drive people more towards poultry or pork."
TGI Friday's, owned by Carlson Restaurants Worldwide, is betting that low-carb diets will stick around. Last month, it announced a partnership with Atkins Nutritionals and began serving Atkins-approved menu items at its more than 520 American restaurants.
"We see really significant rewards in using the Atkins name because we're creating a lot of trust," said Mike Archer, executive vice president and chief operating officer of TGI Friday's. "Low-carb is on fire right now, it's the thing that everybody is talking about, and we think that it can be a considerable part of our business."
The Atkins-inspired dishes include Tuscan spinach dip, sizzling chicken with broccoli and grilled chicken Caesar salad.
Consumer research at TGI Friday's found that 19 percent of those who dine often at casual restaurants like Friday's are using the Atkins approach.
"We're trying to change perceptions of the brand," Archer said, "to show that you can go out to a TGI Friday's and have one of our indulgent items, but you also have some healthy low-carb options."
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