Taiwan is likely to see a sixth month of contraction in exports, following weak global semiconductor sales last month, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said on Friday.
Exports, which account for more than 60 percent of Taiwan’s GDP, might have contracted by 4.1 percent last month from a year earlier, tapering slightly from an annual fall of 4.4 percent the previous month, ANZ said in a note.
Foreign trade data for last month is to be released by the Ministry of Finance tomorrow.
Department of Statistics Director-General Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜) on April 8 said that the critical economic barometer might grow 2.5 percent from a year earlier, citing improved business confidence and a low comparison base.
However, ANZ said that Taiwan’s semiconductor sales declined 11.4 percent year-on-year in March and a quick reversal is unlikely.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs gave a downbeat assessment of external demand when commenting on poor data for export orders released on April 22, with orders falling for the fifth consecutive month in March and down 9 percent year-on-year.
Taiwan is home to the world’s largest contract makers and designers of chips used in smartphones, laptops and other technology devices, with semiconductors driving 25 percent of exports.
The good news is that Taiwan might soon see some improvement in semiconductor demand, ANZ said, citing a pickup in investment alongside a fast rise in capital equipment imports.
Imports of capital equipment increased 15.4 percent in the first three months of the year from the same period last year, with the value of the equipment surging 41.2 percent, government data showed.
ANZ expects imports for last month to shrink by 0.1 percent from a year earlier due to oil prices, reversing a 6.6 percent gain in March.
The bank’s projection suggests a trade surplus of US$3.1 billion for last month, virtually the same as in March, it said.
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