The global solar photovoltaic (PV) market is likely to grow 7.7 percent to a record high again this year, supported by new government incentives and lower solar prices, market researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said yesterday.
Overall, new grid-connected PV capacity is to climb to 133 gigawatts from 103 gigawatts last year, the Taipei-based researcher said in a report.
The EU would be one of the fastest-growing markets this year, with demand surging more than 50 percent annually, it said.
Emerging countries in Southeast Asia, North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America would also gain steam, rising 50 percent, it said.
China and the US would remain the world’s No. 1 and No. 2, accounting for 38 percent and 11 percent respectively of the overall market, followed by India with 8 percent and Japan with 5 percent, TrendForce said.
The solar PV industry “is expected to become healthier and more stable in the long run after the industry consolidation last year,” said Rhea Tsao (曹君如), an analyst with EnergyTrend, an energy research team of TrendForce.
“As the supply chain’s prices decline, the industry is expected to approach grid parity and gradually move toward a subsidy-free” industry, Tsao said.
Several local solar companies have begun to feel the market improvement: Solar wafer supplier Green Energy Technologies Inc (綠能科技) saw its revenue soar 89 percent month-on-month to NT$333.03 million (US$10.8 million) last month, while solar module maker United Renewable Energy Co (聯合再生能源) reported a 15.8 percent increase to NT$1.55 billion.
Last year was a bumpy one for the industry as unfavorable government policies — the US’ anti-dumping rules, China’s subsidy cuts and India’s safeguard tariffs on imported solar goods — played havoc on solar demand and caused an oversupply, TrendForce said.
The solar PV market still managed to grow 4.9 percent last year, beating TrendForce’s forecasts.
The researcher had expected the global solar PV market to contract for the first time, forecasting a 5 to 8 percent decline after China tightened subsidies last year.
“China’s ‘531 New Policy’ certainly impacted the PV industry in 2018. However, the impact was partially offset by growing demand from other markets,” Tsao said.
On the changes in the solar PV supply chain, TrendForce expects monocrystalline silicon solar wafers to account for 60 percent of the market, replacing polycrystalline silicon wafers as the mainstream product.
It also predicted that some polysilicon solar wafer manufacturers would exit the market due to a lack of competitiveness.
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