Brent crude passed US$50 a barrel for the first time this year yesterday after data showed a fall in US crude inventories, adding to expectations of a tightening global market.
At about 3:30am GMT, Brent North Sea crude for July delivery was up US$0.33 at US$50.07 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was trading US$0.29 higher at US$49.85.
The US$50 price point is a key level and traders are watching to see if it can be sustained.
The gains came as markets digested news that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week to May 20, according to US Department of Energy data.
This is largely due to wildfires in the western provinces of Canada — the biggest supplier of crude to the US market — which have curbed oil production.
Canada’s central bank had also announced on Wednesday that the fires would impact the country’s economic output numbers.
“News about the US inventory, coupled with Canada’s announcement, gave prices the boost it needed to push past the US$50 mark,” CMC Markets trader Alex Wijaya said.
Both pricing standards have been edging close to the US$50 mark for about two weeks, but a strong US dollar had curtailed gains.
A firmer greenback, which has been performing stronger against major currencies, makes US dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive, hampering demand.
Some analysts are skeptical about how long the current prices will hold. Aside from the stronger US dollar, major exporter Iran has also vowed to keep up oil production after the lifting of Western sanctions in January, further fueling the supply glut.
“The remarkable over 80 percent rally in oil since earlier this year may have been overdone, as the underlying macro conditions have not changed proportionally,” IG Markets analyst Bernard Aw said in a client note. “This suggested that speculative trades have driven up the price these months, and may not be sustainable.”
Markets are now eyeing a June 2 OPEC meeting in Vienna, where it is hoped a deal on reducing production can be reached. However, Tehran’s stance appeared to reinforce market doubts that OPEC — of which Iran is a member — will take any firm action to curb oversupply.
Last month, talks in Doha involving OPEC members and other major producers, such as Russia, failed to reach a deal to cap production.
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