The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday cut its GDP growth forecast for the nation this year from the 3.55 percent it forecast in April to 2.36 percent, due to the impact of near-zero growth in the second quarter because of global economic uncertainties.
The Taipei-based think tank’s latest forecast was higher than the 1.94 percent GDP growth estimated by Academia Sinica last week.
“Although economic momentum in the second quarter was weak, our overall economic outlook for this year is not that pessimistic [compared with Academia Sinica’s forecast],” CIER president Wu Chung-shu (吳中書) told a press conference.
Wu said the nation’s exports showed a contraction in the first six months due to the impact of various global economic uncertainties led by the eurozone’s debt crisis, further dragging down the GDP growth rate and the institute’s growth forecast.
However, the nation’s overall economic momentum for this year may not be as slow as during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Wu added.
The institute forecast GDP to grow just 0.18 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, worse than the 0.39 percent annual growth posted in the first quarter, an indication that the second quarter could be the bottom of this round of the economic cycle.
However, the economy in the second half of the year may rebound from the first half by rising 3.48 percent and 5.13 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively, as exports recover from their slump, the institute said in its quarterly report.
The institute expects the annual growth of exports to reach 0.41 percent this year, with imports to slide 0.25 percent from a year earlier.
On the domestic demand front, private consumption is expected to rise 1.91 percent this year, while private investment may fall 2.23 percent, as most companies in Taiwan maintain a relatively conservative attitude on capital expenditure, the report said.
Since various domestic institutes have revised downward their latest forecasts for economic growth this year, it seems increasingly likely that the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) will follow suit and may cut its full-year growth forecast next Tuesday.
In May, the DGBAS estimated the nation’s economy would grow 3.03 percent this year.
POTENTIAL SETBACK: Although Chinese chip designers and foundry firms already have US EDA software, they might be unable to update those programs under new US rules The US’ latest ban on advanced electronic design automation (EDA) software exports to China might hinder Chinese chip companies from accessing advanced semiconductor technology, as they attempt to upgrade to 3-nanometer processes in the next three to five years, market researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said yesterday. The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security on Friday announced bans on EDA tools for gate-all-around field-effect transistors (GAAFET), a new-generation semiconductor technology that US chipmaker Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co from South Korea are adopting to make 4-nanometer and 3-nanometer chips. The bureau in a statement said that gate-all-around field-effect transistor
DISMAL OUTLOOK: A Citigroup analyst predicted firms face ‘the worst semiconductor downturn in at least a decade,’ due to inventory build and the potential of a recession Semiconductor stocks tumbled after Micron Technology Inc became the latest chipmaker to warn about slowing demand, triggering concern that the industry is heading into a painful downturn. In the US on Tuesday, the Philadelphia semiconductor index sank 4.6 percent, with all 30 members in the red, its biggest drop in about two months. In Asia, chip stocks from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) to Samsung Electronics Co, SK Hynix Inc and Tokyo Electron Ltd slumped. Investors are growing increasingly skittish as the notoriously cyclical industry is hurtling toward a prolonged slump after years of widespread shortages that led to heavy
With a tantalizing array of satay chicken, wok-fried mud crab and chilled tiger prawns, the dinner buffet at Singapore’s Grand Hyatt hotel typically sets diners back about US$70. Those on a tighter budget and with an eye on sustainability can fill a box for one-tenth of that price. Across Asia, tech start-ups are taking food otherwise destined for landfill and providing discounted meals through mobile phone apps. About one-third of food is lost or wasted every year globally, and the mountains of waste are estimated to cause 8 to 10 percent of greenhouse gas emissions such as methane, the UN says.
POSITIVE CULTURE: Pursuing 12-inch wafers earlier than peers helped TSMC lead the industry, said a former executive, whose main regret was working for SMIC in China Corporate culture at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) is what made the chipmaker a leading player in the global industry, a former executive said in an interview with California’s Computer History Museum. “One of the really important reasons that TSMC succeeded” is the culture at the firm, where “if equipment went down at two o’clock in the morning, we just called an equipment engineer,” and the worker would not complain, said former TSMC joint chief operating officer Chiang Shan-yi (蔣尚義). “We didn’t really do anything special, anything great, but we didn’t make any major mistakes,” when compared with competitors, such
RSS