Private think tank Polaris Research Institute (寶華綜合經濟研究院) yesterday revised downward its GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.5 percent, from the 3.88 percent it estimated in March, as worse-than-expected exports in the first half of the year raised pessimism regarding economic sentiment over next half year.
Polaris is the latest domestic think tank to cut Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast for this year to less than 3 percent.
Earlier this month, the Taiwan Research Institute (台灣綜合研究院) slashed its GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.52 percent, from the 4.02 percent it estimated in December last year, while Cathay Financial Holding Co’s (國泰金控) research team revised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.45 percent, from the 3.73 percent it estimated in March.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), which last month forecast the economy would expand 3.03 percent this year, is scheduled to update its growth forecast on July 31.
“The economic indicators did not show good signals in the first half of the year, further raising our pessimism for the full-year economy,” Polaris president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) told a press conference.
Worse-than-expected export figures in the second quarter have led the institute to revise downward its economic growth forecast for the April-to-June period to 0.4 percent, from the 3.16 percent it estimated in March.
Exports dropped 5 percent from a year earlier in the first five months, data from the Ministry of Finance showed.
Meanwhile, continued uncertainties in the global economy were the other major factor leading the institute to cut its full-year GDP growth forecast, Liang said.
The institute forecast that economic growth in the third and fourth quarter would reach 3.35 percent and 5.6 percent respectively on the back of a base effect and a recovering economy in China, which may help drive up demand for Taiwanese products.
However, Liang said both the global economy and Taiwan’s economy were facing “anemic growth,” which indicates growing momentum will maintain sluggish for longer than initially estimated.
In this situation, the global economy will be easily dragged down by external shocks, which may further affect export-oriented countries like Taiwan, he said.
However, Liang said the central bank could keep its currency policy more flexible to drive up short-term export momentum, providing some strength for the nation’s economy.
On the inflation front, Polaris raised its growth forecast on the consumer price index (CPI) this year to 1.9 percent, from 1.57 percent.
The institute expects inflationary pressure to reach a peak in the third quarter this year, with annual CPI growth reaching 2.66 percent.
Taichung reported the steepest fall in completed home prices among the six special municipalities in the first quarter of this year, data compiled by Taiwan Realty Co (台灣房屋) showed yesterday. From January through last month, the average transaction price for completed homes in Taichung fell 8 percent from a year earlier to NT$299,000 (US$9,483) per ping (3.3m²), said Taiwan Realty, which compiled the data based on the government’s price registration platform. The decline could be attributed to many home buyers choosing relatively affordable used homes to live in themselves, instead of newly built homes in the city’s prime property market, Taiwan Realty
The government yesterday approved applications by Alphabet Inc’s Google to invest NT$27.08 billion (US$859.98 million) in Taiwan, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a statement. The Department of Investment Review approved two investments proposed by Google, with much of the funds to be used for data processing and electronic information supply services, as well as inventory procurement businesses in the semiconductor field, the ministry said. It marks the second consecutive year that Google has applied to increase its investment in Taiwan. Google plans to infuse NT$25.34 billion into Charter Investments Ltd (特許投資顧問) through its Singapore-based subsidiary Fructan Holdings Singapore Pte Ltd, and
JET JUICE: The war on Iran’s secondary effects have seen fuel prices skyrocket, knocking flight schedules down to earth in return as airlines struggle with costs Airline passengers should brace for more irritation in the next few months as carriers worldwide cancel flights and ground planes to cope with stratospheric increases in jet-fuel prices. Dutch flag carrier KLM is the latest company to cut its schedule, saying on Thursday that it would scrap 80 return flights at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport in the coming month. That puts it in the same league as United Airlines Holdings Inc, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd, which have all pruned itineraries to mitigate costs. Global capacity for next month has been reduced by about 3 percentage points, with all
The US said it plans to help build a first-of-its-kind industrial hub in the Philippines to boost production of inputs crucial to US supply chains. The 4,000-acre hub is intended to be “a purpose-built platform for allied manufacturing” and “an investment acceleration hub where the specific industrial activities are shaped by market demand,” the US Department of State said on Thursday. The project — touted as an “economic security zone” — would be within the Luzon Economic Corridor, a flagship economic project backed by the US and Japan on the main Philippine island. The project was also described as “the first artificial intelligence
RSS