Despite the threat of rising competition from tablet computers, Quanta Computer Inc (廣達) yesterday maintained its forecast of a 10 percent rise in laptop shipments to more than 57 million units this year.
The world’s top contract maker of laptops last year shipped 52.1 million units, surpassing its target of 50 million units. Quanta vice chairman C.C. Leung (梁次震) told a shareholders’ meeting that it expected shipments in the third and fourth quarters to rise by 5 to 10 percent sequentially to help it achieve its target.
Quanta shipped 22.4 million notebooks for the first five months of this year, and analysts expect it to continue to benefit from orders for Apple Inc’s MacBook series.
Leung said the notebook industry’s growth would slow from last year because of the emergence of tablets, offering ultra-portability and cloud computing.
After the overwhelming market response to Apple’s iPad rollout in April last year, rivals including Asustek Computer Inc (華碩), Acer Inc (宏碁), Samsung Electronics Co, HTC Corp (宏達電) and Research in Motion Ltd have all jumped on the tablet bandwagon.
The rise of tablets would help transform notebooks into thinner machines with longer battery life, and this new breed will stimulate notebook replacement demand next year, Leung said.
The world’s second-largest laptop maker, Compal Electronics Inc (仁寶), which also held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday, agreed.
Compal president Ray Chen (陳瑞聰) said people would replace their notebooks starting from the second half of next year, when ultrathin notebooks equipped with an “instant on” feature and a longer battery life hit the market.
The company expects notebook shipments in the second half of the year to rise by 15 to 20 percent over the first half, chairman Rock Hsu (許勝雄) told shareholders.
Hsu reiterated the company’s full-year forecast of shipping 48 million notebooks, 8 million televisions and 3.8 million tablets.
China will see the strongest notebook shipment growth during the second half, he said.
During the Computex trade show earlier this month in Taipei, Intel Corp, the world’s top chipmaker, said it was touting a new breed of thin laptops called “ultrabooks” and targeting 40 percent of the consumer laptop market by the end of next year.
Intel’s strategy to accelerate this ultrabook vision begins with its latest generation of core processors that can support thin and light notebook systems less than 0.8-inch (20mm) thick and priced at less than US$1,000.
Asustek previewed its UX series notebooks at Computex early this month. It rides on an ultrabook platform and comes with a form factor that rivals Apple’s MacBook Air.
Taipei-based researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said on Thursday that notebook shipments face more challenges in the second half because of low order visibility and a gloomy macroeconomy.
TrendForce estimated that notebook shipments in the second half would reach 110 million, representing a mere 9 percent year-on-year growth, much lower than the historical growth of 20 percent.
The researcher attributed the forecast slower growth not only to market cannibalization by tablet PCs and smartphones, but also because of a longer PC replacement cycle given a lack of killer applications.
Separately, Quanta’s shareholders’ meeting yesterday approved the distribution of a cash dividend of NT$3.60 per share, while Compal approved a cash dividend of NT$2.70 per share.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY BLOOMBERG
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