The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) maintained its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth in its latest global outlook report, saying the nation’s GDP would contract by between 6 percent and 7 percent this year.
The figure was far lower than the average expected decline of 1.9 percent that the EIU forecast for Asia and Australia excluding Japan.
It also compared with a contraction of 3.1 percent for the global economy this year, the EIU said in the report.
Royal Bank of Scotland on Friday said Taiwan’s GDP would contract 6.7 percent this year.
Citibank Taiwan Ltd last Wednesday said Taiwan’s economy was likely to drop 4.4 percent this year.
Hong Kong-based Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia was the most pessimistic, predicting a contraction of 9.3 percent.
EIU, a research unit of The Economist magazine, said Taiwan, along with its close rival South Korea, would be severely hit by weakening major OECD economies and the downturn in China.
Taiwan’s exports declined 31.4 percent year-on-year to US$16.17 billion last month, the Ministry of Finance reported last week.
In the first five months of this year, exports fell 35.1 percent to US$71.54 billion from a year earlier, ministry data showed.
Ministry officials said China’s stimulus program had helped boost demand for Taiwanese electronic and communication products.
Last month, shipments to China — including Hong Kong — rose 8.9 percent month-on-month to US$6.75 billion, government data showed.
But the EIU doubted the effectiveness of a China-oriented buffer, despite the fact that exports to China already accounted for about 40 percent of Taiwanese exports.
“Like many other of China’s trading partners, they are also unlikely to benefit much from the stimulus-induced recovery in China, as most of the measures focus on spending with only a small import content, such as construction,” the UK-based researcher said in the report.
The report said the US economy would shrink 2.9 percent this year, with GDP contractions of 4.5 percent in euro zone countries, 4 percent in the UK and 7 percent in Japan.
The overall weakness in global demand for Taiwanese goods is likely to offset the contributions made by a recent improvement in cross-strait relations, the EIU said.
“In the near term, this [weakening exports] will outweigh the positive impact on business sentiment from an improvement in relations with the Chinese mainland and the likelihood that a free-trade deal will be signed,” it said.
As it believed the worst was over given the latest economic data, the EIU said it expects the global economy to grow substantially for the remainder of the year, albeit on a temporary basis.
But it said the risks to the global economy remained exceptionally high.
“The most serious concern is that the various stimulus packages globally will not be sufficient to trigger self-sustaining recovery,” it said.
The Eurovision Song Contest has seen a surge in punter interest at the bookmakers, becoming a major betting event, experts said ahead of last night’s giant glamfest in Basel. “Eurovision has quietly become one of the biggest betting events of the year,” said Tomi Huttunen, senior manager of the Online Computer Finland (OCS) betting and casino platform. Betting sites have long been used to gauge which way voters might be leaning ahead of the world’s biggest televised live music event. However, bookmakers highlight a huge increase in engagement in recent years — and this year in particular. “We’ve already passed 2023’s total activity and
Nvidia Corp CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) today announced that his company has selected "Beitou Shilin" in Taipei for its new Taiwan office, called Nvidia Constellation, putting an end to months of speculation. Industry sources have said that the tech giant has been eyeing the Beitou Shilin Science Park as the site of its new overseas headquarters, and speculated that the new headquarters would be built on two plots of land designated as "T17" and "T18," which span 3.89 hectares in the park. "I think it's time for us to reveal one of the largest products we've ever built," Huang said near the
China yesterday announced anti-dumping duties as high as 74.9 percent on imports of polyoxymethylene (POM) copolymers, a type of engineering plastic, from Taiwan, the US, the EU and Japan. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s findings conclude a probe launched in May last year, shortly after the US sharply increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, computer chips and other imports. POM copolymers can partially replace metals such as copper and zinc, and have various applications, including in auto parts, electronics and medical equipment, the Chinese ministry has said. In January, it said initial investigations had determined that dumping was taking place, and implemented preliminary
Intel Corp yesterday reinforced its determination to strengthen its partnerships with Taiwan’s ecosystem partners including original-electronic-manufacturing (OEM) companies such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) and chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電). “Tonight marks a new beginning. We renew our new partnership with Taiwan ecosystem,” Intel new chief executive officer Tan Lip-bu (陳立武) said at a dinner with representatives from the company’s local partners, celebrating the 40th anniversary of the US chip giant’s presence in Taiwan. Tan took the reins at Intel six weeks ago aiming to reform the chipmaker and revive its past glory. This is the first time Tan