The government is sticking to its target of 2.5 percent economic growth this year despite prevailing pessimism about the economic outlook, the Council for Economic Planning and Development said yesterday.
York Liao (廖耀宗), chief secretary of the council, said that “economic targets” are always higher than predictions because they represent objectives that the government is working toward.
Liao made the comment in the wake of a media report that given worsening economic conditions, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) was likely to revise its economic growth projection downward when it releases fourth-quarter figures and its latest forecasts on Feb. 19.
The DGBAS’ current forecast puts GDP growth this year at 2.12 percent. However, the report cited a DGBAS official as saying that it looked increasingly unlikely that growth would exceed 2 percent this year and might just stand at more than 1 percent.
The Hong Kong-based brokerage firm CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets on Wednesday released a report saying the Taiwanese economy could contract by 11 percent this year.
Liao said forecasts by brokerage firms tend to be “extreme.”
He said the forecast by CLSA was based solely on Taiwan’s performance in exports and private investment, which could be misleading because it did not take into account efforts made by the government and a possible increase in domestic demand.
CLSA said in the report that heavy increases in government spending would not be enough to prevent a double-digit GDP contraction for Taiwan.
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