The nation’s economy will benefit significantly from cross-strait weekend charter flights and the influx of Chinese tourists, but the economic effects may come at a slower pace than expected, a local economist said yesterday.
“The positive effects might kick in around the latter half of 2009,” said Wea Chi-lin (魏啟林), a professor at the College of Management at National Taiwan University.
Addressing a seminar hosted by the Asia Pacific Industrial Analysis Association (APIAA), Wea said the weekend direct charter flights beginning today were not regular flights and would therefore be more symbolically significant than anything, but would lead to more substantial changes down the road.
“The significance is that Taiwan will join the logistical network of the Asia-Pacific region by offering international businesses direct access to explore the huge Chinese market,” Wea said.
He said that in the past Taiwan had been ignored by some international investors because of the lack of cross-strait links.
As of today, 36 cross-strait charter flights will operate each weekend.
But Wea said the full benefits of cross-strait air links would not materialize until regular scheduled flights were introduced.
“Arrangements for regular cross-strait flights are expected to be completed by the latter half of 2009 to bring real benefits to Taiwan’s economy,” said Wea, who is also the chairman of Paradigm Asset Management Co.
As for the influx of tourists from China, Wea said the number of tourists expected this year depended on further negotiations between Taiwan and China.
More than 700 Chinese tourists are expected to arrive today in 25 tour groups.
The government initially estimated that opening Taiwan to 3,000 tourists from China per day would boost economic growth by 0.48 percent this year.
However, China has since limited the number of tourists to 1,000 per day.
“But the increased number of tourists could cause problems that could drive up social costs significantly,” Wea said.
For example, new diseases could be introduced into Taiwan, he said.
“The government needs to develop precautionary measures to deal with these potential problems,” he said.
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